Kalshi News

CFTC Chair Michael Selig has said that the agency has authority over prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket and warned it will defend that jurisdiction in court if challenged.

Kalshi claims in a preemptive lawsuit that there is “a substantial risk” that Iowa will take action against it after a meeting it had with state regulators.

The prediction markets platform argued for an injunction against Ohio authorities, claiming that federal commodities laws superseded state laws on sports event contracts.

Michael Selig said blockchain-powered prediction markets could improve price discovery and public information, even as several US states challenge the platforms in court.

The plaintiffs characterized the death carveout in a prediction market for the former Iranian Supreme Leader's ouster as "deceptive."

Lawmakers are pushing new regulation for prediction markets after suspiciously timed Polymarket bets on US and Israeli strikes on Iran raised insider-trading concerns.

Senator Chris Murphy says it’s likely people close to Donald Trump with “inside information” made bets on prediction markets on when the US would strike Iran.

The two separate rulings add new regulatory pressure as prediction markets also face scrutiny over information advantages and suspected insider activity tied to event-driven contracts.

The prediction platform said it would reimburse users and resolve markets to the last-traded price before the death of the Iranian leader was confirmed.

CFTC chair Mike Selig said the agency established a prediction markets advisory to help catch insider traders, warning there would be consequences.

US Federal Judge Aleta Trauger granted Kalshi a preliminary injunction against Tennessee, finding its sports event contracts fall under CFTC jurisdiction.

Researchers said Kalshi’s “rich intraday dynamics” enable it to measure expectations in real-time when major financial events and announcements are made.

Kalshi is looking to have Nevada’s lawsuit heard in federal court, again asserting it is subject only to federal commodity exchange laws.

The Prediction Markets Working Group, launched by The Digital Chamber, will champion the sector’s values while advocating for the CFTC to maintain primary oversight. 

Wall Street–style liquidity is reportedly moving into prediction markets, signaling a shift toward deeper markets, higher volumes and greater institutional participation.