Today in crypto: Bitcoin’s four-year cycle still exists but is now driven by politics, The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) publishes crypto custody bulletin for investors. Meanwhile, Itaú Asset has recommended that investors hold 1% to 3% of their portfolios in Bitcoin next year.
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is intact, but driven by politics and liquidity: Analyst
Bitcoin’s long-debated four-year cycle is still playing out, but the forces behind it have shifted away from the halving toward politics and liquidity, according to Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research.
Speaking on The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast, Thielen argued that the idea of the four-year cycle being “broken” misses the point. In his view, the cycle remains intact, but it is no longer dictated by Bitcoin (BTC)’s programmed supply cuts. Instead, it is increasingly shaped by US election timelines, central bank policy and the flow of capital into risk assets.
Thielen pointed to historical market peaks in 2013, 2017 and 2021, all of which occurred in the fourth quarter. Those peaks, he said, align more closely with presidential election cycles and broader political uncertainty than with the timing of Bitcoin halvings, which have shifted throughout the calendar over the years.
“There's this uncertainty that the sitting president's party is going to lose a lot of seats. I think that's also the odds now that Trump would lose or Republicans would lose a lot of seats in the House, and therefore, maybe he's not going to push a lot of his agenda through anymore,” he said.
SEC publishes crypto custody guide to educate investors
The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) published a guide outlining best practices for crypto custody and storage for the investing public.
The SEC’s guide outlines the pros and cons of using cold storage versus online hot wallets, how to choose a third-party custodian, and the importance of keeping private keys safe, which are used to sign crypto transactions and verify identity onchain.
Investors who choose third-party custody should always be aware of how the custodian plans to use the assets placed in their care, including whether or not those assets will be lent out or commingled with assets belonging to other clients, according to the SEC.
The SEC’s investor bulletin promoting best practices for crypto storage and custody reflects the sweeping regulatory pivot at the agency following the 2024 presidential election in the US and the appointment of Paul Atkins as SEC chair.
Brazil’s largest private bank advises investors to allocate 3% to Bitcoin in 2026
Itaú Asset Management, the investment arm of Brazil's largest private bank, Itaú Unibanco, has recommended that investors hold 1% to 3% of their portfolios in Bitcoin next year.
In a new research note, Itaú Asset’s Renato Eid said that the global backdrop of geopolitical tension, shifting monetary policy and persistent currency risks strengthens the case for adding Bitcoin (BTC) as a complementary asset.
He called Bitcoin “an asset distinct from fixed income, traditional stocks, or domestic markets, with its own dynamics, return potential, and — due to its global and decentralized nature — a currency hedging function.”
The suggestion comes despite a turbulent year for Bitcoin. The asset began 2025 near $95,000, slid toward $80,000 during the tariff crisis, then surged to an all-time high of $125,000 before settling back around $95,000.
