Prediction Markets News

The prediction market's Dutch arm, Adventure One, allegedly offered illegal bets, including on elections in the Netherlands.

US Federal Judge Aleta Trauger granted Kalshi a preliminary injunction against Tennessee, finding its sports event contracts fall under CFTC jurisdiction.

Prediction markets promise faster scientific feedback, but without Sybil resistance, they risk amplifying bots, coordination and synthetic consensus over evidence.

Polymarket’s lawsuit challenges state authority and could redefine whether the CFTC controls US prediction markets or whether states set their own rules.

Researchers said Kalshi’s “rich intraday dynamics” enable it to measure expectations in real-time when major financial events and announcements are made.

A drop in Solana’s DApp revenue, along with limited institutional and retail investor interest, adds vulnerability to SOL’s $78 support.

Kalshi is looking to have Nevada’s lawsuit heard in federal court, again asserting it is subject only to federal commodity exchange laws.

Two more ETF issuers have filed prospectuses for six US election prediction market ETFs, allowing investors to gain exposure to election outcomes.

The Prediction Markets Working Group, launched by The Digital Chamber, will champion the sector’s values while advocating for the CFTC to maintain primary oversight. 

Michael Selig said the US financial regulator had filed an amicus brief against what he called an “onslaught of state-led litigation” against prediction markets.

The ETF issuer warned that investors who pick the fund tied to the losing US presidential outcome could lose nearly all invested capital.

Prediction markets should pivot from short-term betting and move toward becoming price stability instruments for consumers, Buterin argued.

Israeli authorities said a military reservist and a civilian were arrested after allegedly using classified information to place bets related to military strikes on Iran.

Polymarket is challenging Massachusetts in federal court, arguing that states lack the authority to regulate CFTC-approved prediction markets.

Wall Street–style liquidity is reportedly moving into prediction markets, signaling a shift toward deeper markets, higher volumes and greater institutional participation.