XRP shows gold-like breakout pattern, analyst says — but risks remain

XRP (XRP) is on track to repeat gold’s multiyear rally in 2026, according to analyst Steph is Crypto.

Key takeaways:

• XRP is tracking gold’s past breakout structure, supporting $8–$10 targets if the fractal holds.
• Failure to reclaim the 100-week EMA could send XRP back toward the $1.61–$1.97 range.

Gold’s fractal hints at $8-$10 XRP price next

The bullish outlook took cues from gold’s recovery in late 2022, which occurred after two years of consolidation inside the $1,620-$2,055 area.

In 2020-2022, the precious metal formed the classic five-wave structure of the Elliott Wave Theory, including a descending channel pattern during the wave 3-4 formation, as shown below.

XAU/USD two-day chart. Source: TradingView

In November 2022, gold broke decisively above its long-term resistance. What followed was a sustained expansion phase, with prices rising by roughly 180% and pushing to record high levels of about $4,550 in December 2025.

Related: Crypto lagged gold, stocks, but 2026 offers chance for ‘catch up’

XRP’s recent price action shows notable similarities to gold’s 2020–2022 consolidation phase.

XAU/USD vs. XRP/USD two-day chart. Source: TradingView/Steph is Crypto

After spending months within a descending channel (wave 3-4), XRP price surged nearly 30% in the first week of 2026, breaking above that structure and signaling upside momentum for the year ahead.

Steph’s chart showed $8-$10 as XRP price targets in 2026, up 230%-310% from current levels.

“What stands out is how closely XRP is tracking that same path, just delayed in time,” the analyst wrote, adding:

“Hard assets tend to move first. Higher-beta assets follow. Gold already made its move. XRP is just starting to respond.”

What could invalidate the bullish XRP setup?

XRP’s current recovery also has a resemblance to its 2021–2022 bearish phase. Back then, rising prices paired with a falling relative strength index (RSI) formed a bearish divergence, marking a macro top that led to an 85% correction.

During that downtrend, XRP saw sharp countertrend rallies, often after testing the 100-week exponential moving average (EMA), with some rebounds exceeding 100% gains.

XRP/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

However, these moves failed to reverse the broader trend, as price remained capped by a descending trendline.

In 2026, XRP continued to trade below both the descending trendline and the 100-week EMA, suggesting the bear market may not be fully over.

A decisive reclaim of these levels could open a move toward $3.00 near the 1.618 Fibonacci level, while failure risks a pullback toward the $1.61–$1.97 zone.

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