Bitcoin realized profit and loss ratio falls to 43-month low

Bitcoin’s realized profit and loss (P&L) ratio has fallen to a 43-month low of -0.35, a figure that signals extreme market-wide loss conditions but has historically coincided with Bitcoin market bottoms, according to blockchain analytics platform CryptoQuant.

The Bitcoin realized P&L ratio measures the proportion of Bitcoin (BTC) supply that is in profit or loss relative to total supply. It was last at these levels in December 2022, shortly after FTX shockingly collapsed and sent Bitcoin below $16,000.

“Historically the indicator has marked BTC bottoms with extreme precision,” CryptoQuant said on Thursday. In 2015 and 2019, the Bitcoin realized P&L ratio also fell below -0.35 before price rallies followed. 

Data suggesting Bitcoin is at a bear market bottom could lift market sentiment, as it suggests that Bitcoin could rally from this point. However, analysts have disagreed on whether Bitcoin still has more to fall.

Bitcoin up more than 7% since dropping close to a two-year low of $58,190 on June 25.

Some analysts attributed that drop to Strategy — the largest corporate Bitcoin holder — after its top perpetual preferred stock offering, Stretch (STRC), broke from its $100 par value to below $75, raising fears that its dividend model was unsustainable.

Related: Crypto Biz: Bitcoin maximalism meets the realities of capital markets 

On Thursday, Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan said the STRC incident squeezed out excess leverage and likely moved the market one step closer to a bottom.

“As the market continues to sort things out, I’m convinced the bottom is closer than ever — and that we will enter a new bull market in the fall.”

Don’t wait for the bottom, analyst says

Swan Bitcoin analyst Adam Livingston noted that Bitcoin is currently trading only 16% above the realized price — the network's aggregate on-chain cost basis — a level that has historically coincided with strong forward returns of 41% at six months and 81% at 12 months.

Livingston acknowledged that buying Bitcoin right now “feels awful,” but that’s precisely why it’s trading at a discount, he argued.

“Waiting for ‘the bottom’ is a wonderful plan with one flaw. The bottom never announces itself,” Livingston said, recommending investors buy now rather than overpay at the top.

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