The current Bitcoin (BTC) bear market can be explained by the four-year cycle and long-term BTC holders selling at the $100,000 psychological level, according to Anthony Scaramucci, managing partner of the SkyBridge investment firm.
Bitcoin’s four-year market cycle has been “muted” by institutional investors and inflows from BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that have cushioned volatility, Scaramucci said, but the altered market dynamics have not fully erased BTC’s traditional cycles. He said:
“We're in a four-year cycle, and there were some traditional whales, some OG's, that believe in the four-year cycle, and guess what happens in life when you believe in something? You create a self-fulfilling prophecy.”
BTC will continue to see choppy price action for most of the year, until the fourth quarter of 2026, when prices will start to rise again in a new bull market cycle, he said.
Scaramucci said that market participants, including himself, were widely expecting BTC to climb to $150,000 in 2025, driven by US President Donald Trump’s pro-crypto agenda and US regulators warming up to the digital asset industry.
However, the October market crash, which dragged BTC down from an all-time high of about $126,000 to a low of $60,000, completely shattered the widely held consensus.
Markets often move in opposite ways to the prevailing investor sentiment, Scaramucci said, citing Bitcoin’s price action in the early months of 2023, following the November 2022 collapse of the FTX exchange, as an example.
“It was at a period of great disinterest and great apathy that the bull market started again,” he said, adding that the current BTC bear market is a “garden variety” correction in line with previous downturns.
To be sure, crypto industry executives, analysts, and market participants continue to debate whether Bitcoin’s four-year cycle theory is still valid after BTC ended 2025 in the red or if changing market dynamics have permanently altered how the price of BTC moves.
Related: Bitcoin price aims to hold $70K amid rising inflation concerns
Could Iran war and geopolitical turmoil bring BTC more pain?
The price of BTC fell below $69,000 on Saturday as the war in Iran entered its third week, jolting risk assets across the board.
Stock market investors saw the S&P 500 index extend its decline on Friday, dropping by about 1.3%. A day earlier the gauge closed below its 200-day moving average, a key technical indicator closely watched to assess the overall trend of equities markets, for the first time in 10 months.
Some analysts now forecast a potential 50% drop in BTC’s price in 2026 if it continues to exhibit a positive correlation with the S&P 500 index.
Magazine: The debate over Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is over: Benjamin Cowen
