Capitulation means conceding. In the financial sphere, this term reflects a period of aggressive selling when the last bulls concede defeat to become bears themselves.
What is crypto market capitulation?
Suppose a cryptocurrency drops 30% overnight. An investor has two options: continue to hold or sell to realize the losses.
There will be a sharp decline in price if most investors decide to realize their losses. Additionally, this selling pressure could produce a price bottom as the bears run out of coins to sell.
But while it's very difficult to predict and identify capitulation, there are a few recurring market signals that can help traders prepare for such an event.
A crypto market capitulation will typically include most of these conditions:
- Rapid price crash
- Large trading volumes
- Oversold conditions
- High volatility
- A significant drop in the number of large holders
- Negative market fundamentals
For example, the sudden collapse of the FTX Token (FTT), the native asset of the defunct crypto exchange FTX, in November 2022 accompanied most signs of capitulation, as shown in the chart below.
Cryptocurrencies, especially those with extremely low market caps and liquidity, will always see greater volatility during capitulation. But crypto market capitulations are not always bad for investors. On the contrary, they bring the period of maximum profit opportunity as the asset price bottoms out.
For instance, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) have experienced several market capitulation events over the years, accompanied by large sell volumes and price bottoms. One such event was the market crash of March 2020.
What is the significance of a crypto market capitulation?
Many experienced traders and investors see a crypto market capitulation as a coming price-bottom predictor. As a result, they prefer to accumulate during a declining market, thus absorbing the sell-side pressure and creating grounds for a potential bullish reversal ahead.
Additionally, a crypto market capitulation typically removes short-term sellers. It gradually shifts the momentum to entities with a long-term upside outlook since almost everyone who was going to sell has already done so.
This is typically reflected in a consistent rise of BTC supply held by addresses for more than six months, dubbed “old coins.”
According to research from Glassnode, these coins are less likely to be spent on any given day:
"Old Coins typically swell in volume during bearish market trends, reflecting a net transfer of coin wealth from newer investors and speculators, back towards patient longer-term investors (HODLers)."
Ultimately, timing a market bottom during a capitulation event is extremely difficult as the process can take months, if not years, as with BTC from 2014 to 2016.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.