News
The prediction market is introducing price-based contracts tied to stocks and commodities, using Pyth data feeds as the "resolution source" to automatically settle outcomes.
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Polymarket News
Polymarket is a prediction market platform built using blockchain technology that lets people speculate on the outcome of real-world events by trading shares tied to those outcomes. It’s often described as the world’s largest decentralized prediction market.
At its core, Polymarket is a peer-to-peer prediction market:
Like other prediction markets, Polymarket’s markets are tied to questions like “Will X happen?”
You can buy “Yes” or “No” shares on an outcome.
The price reflects its implied probability (e.g., $0.70 ≈ 70% chance) and this is commonly referred to as ‘the wisdom of the crowd’.
Trade or Hold: You can trade those shares with others before the event resolves, similar to trading financial assets.
Resolution: After the event concludes, the correct outcome is verified (often via decentralized oracles) and winners are paid.
This means that the user is not just placing a fixed-odds bet — they are participating in a market that aggregates collective beliefs about future events. Polymarket markets cover a wide range of topics, such as:
- Politics and elections.
- Economic indicators and macro outcomes.
- Sports and entertainment events.
- Weather, culture, tech milestones, and more.
- News
Polymarket’s March 30 fee overhaul lifted daily fees and revenue, but how long the spike lasts is unclear as regulatory pressure builds.
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As part of the offering, Paradigm is also exploring an internal market-making desk for prediction market trading and a prediction market index.
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“There’s a myth in mainstream media and social media that insider trading doesn’t apply in the prediction markets … That is wrong,” said CFTC enforcement director David Miller.
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Polymarket pundits are giving just a 15% chance that Bitcoin will reclaim $120,000 in 2026, while veteran trader Peter Brandt said he doesn't expect a new high until Q2 2027.
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CFTC Chair Michael Selig signaled that the agency would defer to the football league in calling for changes to event contracts that could be manipulated by a single person.
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The Polymarket trader quickly bought $676 worth of one-cent shares in Tyrell Fortune winning the fight after he realized the UFC announcer called out the wrong winner.
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Polymarket odds of Ether losing its No. 2 crypto ranking in 2026 have surged from 17% to over 59%, as stablecoin growth challenges its position.
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The P2P.me team opened positions on the Polymarket prediction platform to wager whether the project would hit its $6 million fundraising goal.
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ICE completed a new $600 million investment in Polymarket, advancing its $2 billion funding deal as prediction markets face growing scrutiny.
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Kalshi has already listed specific markets that ARK Invest is interested in, such as non-farm payroll markets and deficit-to-GDP (gross domestic product) ratio markets.
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Onchain commodity-linked perpetuals are gaining traction as traders rotate away from underperforming altcoins, according to a Sygnum report.
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Argentina’s block on Polymarket reflects concerns over gambling laws, weak user safeguards and rising regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets.
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The offering allows institutional investors to trade event-based contracts using crypto collateral, as regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets intensifies in the United States.
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Kalshi is facing off with state regulators around the US, who claim that prediction markets are a form of gambling and recognize that they are a significant source of potential revenue.
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