News
Polymarket traders price an 86% chance of Lighter’s airdrop by the end of 2025 as the DEX opens wallet allocation forms and redistributes slashed points.
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Polymarket News
Polymarket is a prediction market platform built using blockchain technology that lets people speculate on the outcome of real-world events by trading shares tied to those outcomes. It’s often described as the world’s largest decentralized prediction market.
At its core, Polymarket is a peer-to-peer prediction market:
Like other prediction markets, Polymarket’s markets are tied to questions like “Will X happen?”
You can buy “Yes” or “No” shares on an outcome.
The price reflects its implied probability (e.g., $0.70 ≈ 70% chance) and this is commonly referred to as ‘the wisdom of the crowd’.
Trade or Hold: You can trade those shares with others before the event resolves, similar to trading financial assets.
Resolution: After the event concludes, the correct outcome is verified (often via decentralized oracles) and winners are paid.
This means that the user is not just placing a fixed-odds bet — they are participating in a market that aggregates collective beliefs about future events. Polymarket markets cover a wide range of topics, such as:
- Politics and elections.
- Economic indicators and macro outcomes.
- Sports and entertainment events.
- Weather, culture, tech milestones, and more.
- News
Keonne Rodriguez said on social media that he will report to prison on Friday to begin his five-year sentence for operating an illegal money transmitter.
3720 - News
The BitMEX co-founder's latest Substack essay argues the US Fed’s liquidity program mirrors quantitative easing mechanics that favor Bitcoin and other scarce assets.
1730 - Market Analysis
Ether has dropped below $3,000 and is down 42% from its record high, prompting traders to question where the next bounce zone for the ETH price might be.
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As crypto platforms explore prediction market integrations, retention data highlights why sustaining user engagement remains one of the industry’s most challenging tasks.
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The US regulator's green light lets Bitnomial’s clearinghouse support prediction markets linked to crypto and economic events, expanding its regulated product and clearing offerings.
3368 - Analysis
Prediction markets may be providing a way of turning opinions into financial products, but they may also pose financial risks and opportunities for insider trading.
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Rising retail participation incentivizes data-driven, “elite” traders to use “information asymmetry” and spreads caused by casual investors seeking a quick buck, 10x said.
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Paradigm researchers found that major analytics dashboards are double-counting Polymarket’s trading volume due to redundant blockchain events.
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Prediction markets offer traders more upside than holding the underlying spot crypto, but AI bots and accounts with a 100% win rate raise suspicions of insider trading.
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The company has approached traders, including sports bettors, about joining the effort as it expands in the US; rival Kalshi faces scrutiny over similar practices.
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Kalshi will provide real-time prediction data across CNBC’s TV, digital and subscription platforms beginning in 2026 as part of a mult-year partnership.
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Select users in the US will be among the first to access the predictions platform to bet on sports event contracts, following clearance from a financial regulator for a relaunch.
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Cleanspark, Riot, Cipher and Circle rose as the odds of a US rate cut in December reached the highest level of the month on the prediction market.
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The approval came as the US Senate is expected to vote soon on prospective CFTC chair Michael Selig as a replacement for acting Chair Caroline Pham.
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