News
CFTC Chair Michael Selig has said that the agency has authority over prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket and warned it will defend that jurisdiction in court if challenged.
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Polymarket News
Polymarket is a prediction market platform built using blockchain technology that lets people speculate on the outcome of real-world events by trading shares tied to those outcomes. It’s often described as the world’s largest decentralized prediction market.
At its core, Polymarket is a peer-to-peer prediction market:
Like other prediction markets, Polymarket’s markets are tied to questions like “Will X happen?”
You can buy “Yes” or “No” shares on an outcome.
The price reflects its implied probability (e.g., $0.70 ≈ 70% chance) and this is commonly referred to as ‘the wisdom of the crowd’.
Trade or Hold: You can trade those shares with others before the event resolves, similar to trading financial assets.
Resolution: After the event concludes, the correct outcome is verified (often via decentralized oracles) and winners are paid.
This means that the user is not just placing a fixed-odds bet — they are participating in a market that aggregates collective beliefs about future events. Polymarket markets cover a wide range of topics, such as:
- Politics and elections.
- Economic indicators and macro outcomes.
- Sports and entertainment events.
- Weather, culture, tech milestones, and more.
- News
Democratic Senator Adam Schiff introduced a bill to ban prediction markets related to war, death and terrorism amid escalating insider trading concerns related to military operations.
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Michael Selig said blockchain-powered prediction markets could improve price discovery and public information, even as several US states challenge the platforms in court.
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"Sinners" star Michael B. Jordan’s odds of winning the Best Actor Oscar jumped from 10% on March 1 after he won the SAG best actor award.
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Lawmakers are pushing new regulation for prediction markets after suspiciously timed Polymarket bets on US and Israeli strikes on Iran raised insider-trading concerns.
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Senator Chris Murphy says it’s likely people close to Donald Trump with “inside information” made bets on prediction markets on when the US would strike Iran.
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The two separate rulings add new regulatory pressure as prediction markets also face scrutiny over information advantages and suspected insider activity tied to event-driven contracts.
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The prediction platform said it would reimburse users and resolve markets to the last-traded price before the death of the Iranian leader was confirmed.
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The newly created Polymarket wallets placed bets on the timing of a US strike against Iran, buying shares hours before the first explosions were reported in Tehran.
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The top eight wallets on Polymarket netted over $1.2 million by betting on ZachXBT’s investigation into Axiom, raising insider trading concerns among blockchain researchers.
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As US policymakers scrutinize prediction market platforms, Polymarket users placed bets on which company crypto sleuth ZachXBT would expose for insider trading.
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Users placed more than $7 million betting on the outcome of the crypto sleuth's investigation, expected to be announced on Thursday.
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Bitcoin and altcoins sold-off as US stock markets digested US President Donald Trump’s fresh 15% global tariff. Are new 2026 lows in store?
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Bitcoin’s market cap dropped to $1.31 trillion, slipping to 15th globally as prices dipped below $65,000, fueling rising bearish bets on Polymarket.
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The prediction market’s Dutch arm, Adventure One, allegedly offered illegal bets, including those on elections in the Netherlands.
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