News
The CFTC is investigating trades that took place before the US delayed strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure on March 23 and agreed to a ceasefire with Iran on April 7.
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Polymarket News
Polymarket is a prediction market platform built using blockchain technology that lets people speculate on the outcome of real-world events by trading shares tied to those outcomes. It’s often described as the world’s largest decentralized prediction market.
At its core, Polymarket is a peer-to-peer prediction market:
Like other prediction markets, Polymarket’s markets are tied to questions like “Will X happen?”
You can buy “Yes” or “No” shares on an outcome.
The price reflects its implied probability (e.g., $0.70 ≈ 70% chance) and this is commonly referred to as ‘the wisdom of the crowd’.
Trade or Hold: You can trade those shares with others before the event resolves, similar to trading financial assets.
Resolution: After the event concludes, the correct outcome is verified (often via decentralized oracles) and winners are paid.
This means that the user is not just placing a fixed-odds bet — they are participating in a market that aggregates collective beliefs about future events. Polymarket markets cover a wide range of topics, such as:
- Politics and elections.
- Economic indicators and macro outcomes.
- Sports and entertainment events.
- Weather, culture, tech milestones, and more.
- News
Polymarket links briefly appeared under mainstream outlets in Google News results for event-driven queries but were later removed.
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The 10-day lunar flyby mission is expected to end in a splashdown landing in the Pacific Ocean on Friday evening.
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While nearly 16% of Polymarket users are in profit, only a tiny fraction have made gains large and consistent enough to entertain walking away from their day job.
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Lookonchain noted that the “yes” bets were placed at probabilities between 2.9% and 10.3%, with the three wallets placing their first bets within 26 hours of the announcement.
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Polymarket has become one of decentralized finance’s highest fee-generating protocols, pulling in about $7.1 million in fees in the first week of the second quarter.
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Polymarket is upgrading its exchange infrastructure in the coming weeks, introducing new contracts and a USDC-backed token while phasing out a bridged stablecoin.
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As Iran war odds swing on Polymarket and Kalshi, Sygnum’s Fabian Dori says prediction markets are fast becoming macro tools for crypto desks.
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The President of the United States continues to give contradictory signals of escalating the war and winding it down within a few weeks.
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The judge said Kalshi’s event contracts are indistinguishable from sports betting, supporting the state’s position that the platform requires a gaming license.
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Prediction markets are expanding into Asia’s largest economies, but unclear legal definitions and strict gambling laws may limit how far they can go.
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Polymarket cited “integrity standards” for removing the market but did not specify which rule was broken, drawing scrutiny from users who questioned how its policies are applied.
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The prediction market is introducing price-based contracts tied to stocks and commodities, using Pyth data feeds as the "resolution source" to automatically settle outcomes.
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Polymarket’s March 30 fee overhaul lifted daily fees and revenue, but how long the spike lasts is unclear as regulatory pressure builds.
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As part of the offering, Paradigm is also exploring an internal market-making desk for prediction market trading and a prediction market index.
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