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Back in 2015, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon had said that people trading in digital currencies such as Bitcoin were wasting their time. Notwithstanding, the lucky few who wasted their time back then would be sitting on more than 900 percent returns. What a fantastic way to waste time.
Fast forward two years and Dimon has intensified his criticism of Bitcoin, calling it “a fraud” and a bubble “worse than tulip bulbs”. Nevertheless, he doesn’t want to short Bitcoin either, because he is not sure how far the bubble will expand.
Let’s study the charts and try to forecast whether we should buy this correction or stay out of it.
Bitcoin has extended its correction and is currently at the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which is a crucial support. A break and close below this level is likely to exacerbate selling, which can sink the digital currency to $3363, which is a 50 percent Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from $1752 to $4975.
However, the RSI will enter oversold territory if Bitcoin falls sharply below the 50-day SMA. Three previous oversold readings on the RSI have proven to be an excellent buying opportunity. Hence, it can be risky to short bitcoin at the current levels.
On the other hand, if Bitcoin bounces from the 50-day SMA, it will face resistance at the downtrend line. We shall turn bullish only after Bitcoin stops falling and breaks out of the downtrend line.
At current levels, we should remain neutral on the cryptocurrency, as we don’t find any good setups, either to go long or short.
We were correct in avoiding a trade on Ethereum in our previous analysis. A short trade would have hit our stop loss above $310 and a long trade would also have hit the stop loss.
So, what next?
Ethereum is comparatively weaker than Bitcoin, as it has already broken below the 50-day SMA. It is currently at a critical 50 percent Fibonacci retracement of the rally from $129.78 to $409.42. A break below this crucial support can sink the digital currency to $236 levels, which is a 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the upmove.
However, we don’t find an attractive short trade setup, which has a good risk to reward ratio. Therefore, we remain neutral on Ethereum.
Bitcoin Cash has broken down below the range of $523 to $736. Its next support is at $470 from where it had bounced on Sept. 5. If this level breaks, the cryptocurrency may plummet to $440.
On the other hand, if the digital currency finds support at $470, it is again likely to enter into the range.
We don’t find any attractive long or short trading setups, therefore, we remain neutral on Bitcoin Cash.
Ripple could not breakout of the downtrend line and rally above $0.23500, therefore, our long trade was not triggered.
The digital currency is perilously close to breaking down below $0.19300 levels that will complete the bearish descending triangle pattern, which has a lower pattern target of $0.085. However, we expect $0.13500 to act as a strong support because this level has not been broken down on a closing basis since early-May of this year.
We recommend a short trade on ripple on a close below $0.19000 with a stop loss of $0.22500. Please cover 50 percent of the shorts closer to $0.15000 levels, and trail the remaining position with a close stop loss.
Litecoin has broken down the descending triangle pattern. It can fall to $52 and thereafter to $41 levels. Again, a stop loss and the target objective don’t justify a short trade. Therefore, we are not recommending any trade on it.
*Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin charts are provided by HitBTC exchange.
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