Key takeaways:
Bitcoin retained range-bound trading above $120,000 after an 8% leverage reset in futures.
Spot demand and declining open interest point to renewed buyer confidence.
The MVRV ratio signaled a potential 15% to 25% upside, targeting $140,000 to $150,000 by the end of Q4.
Bitcoin (BTC) continued to range trade between $120,000 and $125,000 after a sharp, but orderly, deleveraging across futures markets, suggesting that $120,000 could emerge as a key demand zone for traders in the short term.
According to market analyst Skew, Bitcoin’s recent rebound from the $120,000 level underscored buyer bids at that range. Spot market data from Binance indicated an uptick in the cumulative volume delta (CVD) around the $120,000 mark, reflecting renewed spot buying interest.
At the same time, perpetual futures markets saw bids clustering near the same level, while open interest declined, signaling short positions being closed as prices rebounded.
Together, these factors suggest that the market may be defining a new short-term “value area” around $123,000 over the next few days, with heavier supply overhead above the latter range.
Onchain metrics support this consolidation thesis. Analyst Maartunn observed that short-term holders are nearly evenly split between realizing profits and losses, with 24,100 BTC sent to exchanges at a profit versus 19,700 BTC at a loss, a “near 50/50 split, but leaning green.”
Additionally, data from Binance further highlighted the leverage reset that accompanied the recent pullback. Bitcoin open interest on the exchange fell to $13.88 billion from a record $15.07 billion on Monday, a 7.9% decline over three days.
This contraction in leverage typically reflected cautious repositioning rather than a full-scale exit, and may pave the way for a more sustainable advance once fresh capital re-enters the market.
Related: Bitcoiners are in profit, but beware of short-term fragility: Glassnode
MVRV analysis points to strong Q4 outlook
While the short-term trend shows consolidation, analysts remain broadly optimistic about Bitcoin’s trajectory into year-end. Market strategist Timo Oinonen highlighted the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio as a key indicator of potential upside. The MVRV metric compares Bitcoin’s current market capitalization to its realized capitalization, essentially measuring whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued relative to its holders’ cost basis.
According to Oinonen, Bitcoin’s MVRV currently suggests a base scenario where prices could climb 15% to 25% toward $140,000–$150,000 by the end of Q4, supported by long-term holder accumulation and resilient short-term cost bases.
A more bullish scenario, where the MVRV climbs above 4.0, mirroring the 2021 cycle, could drive BTC toward $170,000 to $200,000 amid renewed market euphoria and a possible post-halving supply squeeze.
Related: Bitcoin has 100 days to go ‘parabolic’ or end its bull market: Analysis
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.