Price Analysis, November 20: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Ripple, Litecoin
Bitcoin to $9,969? Low volatility for Bitcoin Cash? See what else.
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* BTC/USD, ETH/USD and LTC/USD market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange.
Blockchain technology is likely to change a lot of things in our lives within the next few years. And that’s why the torchbearer of the technology, Bitcoin, continues to catch the fancy of the investors worldwide.
While the debate is open about, which is the best cryptocurrency for the future, currently, looking at the demand, Bitcoin is clearly in the front. Bitcoin’s dominance is such that, the difference in market capitalization between the number one and the number two cryptocurrencies has widened to more than $100 bln.
Will this gap swell further or is it time for Bitcoin to take a breather? Let’s find out.
On Nov. 12, Bitcoin hit a low of $5,450.86, but within a span of eight days, the cryptocurrency has risen more than 50 percent. This shows the kind of demand at lower levels.
As Bitcoin continues to make new lifetime highs, it is difficult to become bearish on it. However, it is currently trading inside an ascending channel. The cryptocurrency is close to the resistance line of the channel. I anticipate some profit booking around the $8,500 mark.
However, if the cryptocurrency breaks out of this ascending channel, it can rally to $9,969 and thereafter to $11,068 levels. In order to reach these two levels, Bitcoin will have to rally 21 percent and 35 percent from the current levels.
If the breakout fails, the virtual currency is likely to fall to $8,000 and thereafter to $7,420 levels. A break below $8,000 is likely to lead to a negative divergence.
Considering the overhead resistance from the channel line and the negative development on the RSI, I don’t consider any trade at the current levels to be a good idea.
On Nov. 13, I proposed a long position on Ethereum once it broke out and sustained above the $315 levels. The trade triggered on Nov. 14.
I had suggested booking 50 percent profits at $367. The level was touched on Nov. 19. I am still left with 50 percent of the positions, which should be held with stops at breakeven because Ethereum can rally to $378.
At this level, the digital currency will face resistance from the downtrend line of a symmetrical triangle. However, if it manages to breakout and close above this level, the price is likely to gain momentum.
The pattern target of the breakout from a symmetrical triangle is $645.
I want to enjoy this ride if it materializes. Hence, I’ll keep the stop loss on the remaining 50 percent position at breakeven.
The boom and bust in Bitcoin Cash has caught the fancy of many traders. However, after a period of high volatility, I expect a period of low volatility.
Both the bulls and the bears are likely to fight it out in the ring, as they decide whether to carry it higher or push it lower.
Meanwhile, the digital currency is likely to remain range-bound between $850 and $1,550.
This is a large range, which can be traded. I’ll wait for a fall to the $850 to enter my long positions.
Contrarily, if the cryptocurrency breaks out of $1,550, it is likely to rally to $2,249 levels.
Therefore, I recommend a trade closer to the lower end of the range at $850 or on a breakout above $1,549 levels.
On Nov. 13, I had recommended to go long on Ripple once it breaks out and closes above the tight range of $0.18 to $0.22.
On Nov. 16, price broke out above the downtrend line, the moving averages and the horizontal resistance at $.022.
The closing price was $0.22713, which triggered our entry.
While my initial stop loss suggestion was $0.17, I would like to reduce the risk. Therefore, I wouldn’t raise the stops to $0.20 levels.
My profit objective is $0.30 levels. However, there is a possibility that Ripple will breakout of $0.3 and rally towards the lifetime highs. Hence, I think booking 50 percent profits at $0.3 and holding the rest with stops at breakeven sounds.
I had suggested long positions at $60.4 on Nov. 13, as Litecoin had broken out of its range of $44 to $57.
The pattern target was $71, a level that was reached on Nov. 16. I had recommended selling only 50 percent positions at the target objective because I expect the rally to extend to $82 levels.
I’ll change my bullish view, if the cryptocurrency again falls back into the range.
Think about keeping the SL on the positions at breakeven. Once Litecoin breaks out above $75, I’ll raise the stops to $64.