XRP’s (XRP) onchain market structure resembles a setup that led to significant losses in 2022 after the price lost a key support level.
Key takeaways:
XRP's onchain structure mirrors the February 2022 setup that led to a 68% price drop.
XRP bulls must reclaim $2 to avoid a deeper correction toward $1.10.
XRP spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $53.32 million, their second-ever day of outflows and the largest since launch.
Previous signal preceded 68% XRP price drop
Data from Glassnode warned that XRP’s current market structure “closely resembles that of February 2022,” an occurrence that ultimately preceded months of weakness.
“XRP investors active over the 1W–1M window are now accumulating below the cost basis of the 6M–12M cohort,” the market intelligence company wrote in a recent post on X.
Related: New SEC submissions press on self-custody and DeFi regulation
This creates a scenario where newer buyers are in profit, while mid-term holders sit on losses. This gap creates overhead pressure over time if key support levels are not reclaimed.
Glassnode added:
“As this structure persists, psychological pressure on top buyers continues to build over time.”
A similar pattern was seen in February 2022 when XRP was trading at $0.78, which led to a 68% drawdown to $0.30 by June 2022.
If history repeats itself, XRP may fall to as low as $1.40 if the support from $1.80 to $2 does not hold.
$2 level becomes a key psychological zone
The $2 level is a key psychological threshold for XRP in the short to medium term. In an earlier analysis, Glassnode found that each retest of $2 since early 2025 triggered $500 million to $1.2 billion in weekly realized losses, suggesting holders chose to exit their positions and cut their losses.
“This underscores how heavily this level influences spending behavior.”
When the price slides below this important $2 level, pressure builds on holders who acquired XRP at higher levels, while newer buyers accumulate at lower levels.
A 2022 fractal reinforces the importance of this level, suggesting the price may see a deeper correction if it is not reclaimed soon.
For example, the $0.55 level was also a key support level in the past. It supported the price from April 2021 to May 2022, with each subsequent retest weakening the support. The support eventually broke in May 2022, leading to a 48% drop to $0.28.
Similarly, losing the support at $2 may trigger a downward spiral, with the price bottoming just below the 200-week moving average at $1.03, just as in 2022.
As Cointelegraph reported, XRP’s break below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $2 indicates that the bears are back in the game, with downside risk extending to $1.25.
XRP ETFs record their second day of outflows
On Tuesday, spot XRP ETFs recorded their second day of outflows since launch, totaling $53 million, according to data from SoSoValue. This was $13 million higher than the only other outflow of $40 million, recorded on Jan. 7.
These outflows signal caution among institutional investors or profit-taking amid broader crypto market weakness and risk-off sentiment, adding to the sell-side pressure.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
