Bitcoin has lingered below the psychological $100,000 level for seven days, but a crypto researcher says there’s a nearly 50% chance it will surge to $125,000 by late June.
The chance of Bitcoin (BTC) hitting $125,000 by the middle of this year “has improved to 44.4%, up from 41.9%,” onchain options protocol Derive head of research Dr. Sean Dawson said in a Feb. 13 markets report.
Bitcoin odds for a major downside are much lower
Dawson added that the chance of BTC touching $75,000 before June had dropped to 12.1%, down from 17.8%. Meanwhile, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is more bearish on the downside.
Hayes predicted last month that Bitcoin could potentially pull back toward the $70,000 to $75,000 range, a move he said may trigger a “mini financial crisis.”
Bitcoin last traded around $75,000 on Nov. 8, just three days after US President Donald Trump won the election — a moment widely seen as the catalyst for a month-long rally that pushed Bitcoin to $100,000 for the first time on Dec. 5.
Bitcoin is trading at $96,790 at the time of publication. Source: CoinMarketCap
At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $96,790, according to CoinMarketCap.
Bitcoin has been trading below $100,000 since Feb. 7. Bitcoin briefly tapped a new all-time high of $109,000 on Jan. 20, prior to Trump’s inauguration.
Market sentiment “Neutral,” chop may continue
Crypto trader Jelle said that until Bitcoin reclaims $100,000, “choppy conditions” will remain.
The crypto market sentiment measuring Crypto Fear & Greed Index shows sentiment on Feb. 14 was “Neutral” with a score of 48 out of a total possible of 100.
Related: Bitcoin retail, ETF outflows mount to $494M, analysts eye market bottom
Asset manager VanEck said in December that the bull market will hit a “medium-term peak” in the first quarter of 2025 before surging to all-time highs by the end of the year.
It projected that “at the cycle’s apex,” Bitcoin would trade at around $180,000 while ETH would trade above $6,000.”
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