Bitcoin upside possibly capped by ‘a lot of supply’ at $77K: Analyst

Key takeaways:

• Previous-cycle holders who last transacted above $103,000 continue to exert sell pressure during recent Bitcoin rallies.
• Large ETF outflows and lackluster institutional demand below $82,000 complicate Bitcoin price breakouts above $77,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) rallied to $82,00 earlier on May 12, but a correction to $74,500 on Saturday proved that the sell pressure is far from over. Despite Bitcoin displaying strength by distancing itself from its $60,200 yearly low, some analysts believe that coins last moved when Bitcoin traded above $103,000 will continue to weigh on the market.

Source: X/intangiblecoins

Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, said that coins from previous market cycles have consistently moved since the Oct. 10, 2025, flash crash. This activity adds to the potential sell pressure from holders who last transacted when BTC traded above $103,000. Although 4.45 million BTC have likely changed hands over the last seven months, the supply side remains heavily loaded around $77,000.

Normal profit-taking happened, but supply pressure remains

Data collected by Thorn showed that half of the supply activated since the October 2025 crash originated from addresses that last moved coins at $103,600 or higher. According to Thorn, the move “makes sense,” indicating that many traders capitulated after a 52% price correction over four months down to $60,200.

The analyst noted that 36% of the Bitcoin that moved since October 2025 came from holders with a cost basis below $66,000, including 237,000 BTC that had been idle since before the FTX collapse in November 2022. According to Thorn, “that's a lot of old coins who exited during the downturn or took profit since the October all-time high”.

Thorn concluded that there is “a lot of supply to absorb” at the present $77,000 price level. This suggests that there could be ongoing pressure from previous-cycle holders on any rallies, making sustained breakouts tougher until supply exhaustion occurs.

Source: X/GordonGekko

X user GordonGekko, founder of the Crypto Crib newsletter, noted that bears are “celebrating” a small pullback since the $82,000 rejection despite 37% gains from the $60,200 low in February. According to this analysis, traders are overlooking the broader recovery trend amid natural profit-taking, creating a perfect environment for a short squeeze as bears grow overconfident.

Related: Bitcoin volatility falls to 8-month low–Is a BTC breakout imminent?

Source: X/intangiblecoins

Regardless of the spot market dynamics, outflows from the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds may have contributed to the sell pressure. The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT US) saw a record-breaking $1.29 billion block trade on Tuesday, as reported by Thorn. This could be a sign that institutional investors are exiting positions as Bitcoin trades 40% off its all-time high, signaling discomfort.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index rallied to an all-time high on Tuesday, making it harder to attribute Bitcoin’s price weakness to an uncertain macroeconomic environment. Whatever caused traders to reduce exposure since the Oct. 10, 2025, event remains present, strengthening Thorn’s thesis of potential sell pressure as Bitcoin struggles to reclaim $85,000.