Bitcoin (BTC) traders see its ultimate support trendline coming into play as part of a new macro BTC price bottom.
Key points:
Bitcoin is nearing a long-term trendline retest for the first time since late 2023.
Weekly moving averages are on the radar as a BTC price safety net should the market fall again.
Market outlooks place emphasis on trader resilience despite a 40% drawdown.
BTC 200-week trend line “should be the bottom”
The latest analysis increasingly expects Bitcoin to test its 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $68,400.
After four straight red monthly candles, BTC price is fielding fresh downside targets, which include sub-$50,000 levels.
Despite dropping to its lowest levels since late 2024 this week, BTC/USD may be rescued by classic support trend lines in the end.
“We're currently trading at Strategy's cost basis & are close [to] the April lows at $74.4k. If we break below, the next key level is $70k which is just above the previous ATH of $69k,” Nic Puckrin, CEO of crypto education resource Coin Bureau, wrote in an X post Wednesday.
“Breaking below that means we head to a bear market low target. The area to watch here $55.7k - $58.2k. That's just between the average realised price of all coins & the 200w MA. That should be the bottom.”
Puckrin referenced the 200-week simple moving average (SMA), which forms a $10,000-wide support band with the EMA equivalent, data from TradingView shows.
Trader Altcoin Sherpa, meanwhile, said that it would “make sense” for the price to drop to at least the 200-week EMA.
on 1 hand it makes sense for $BTC to tap the 200W EMA, an indicator that hasn't been touched since 2023. This would be around 68k.
— Altcoin Sherpa (@AltcoinSherpa) February 4, 2026
On the other, this is still an interesting level as the 2025 low.
Either way, the bottom is closer than we think imo pic.twitter.com/93DO4s4qlu
“Every time Bitcoin has lost 100W EMA, it has retested the 200W EMA,” trader BitBull continued on the topic.
“Right now, 200W EMA is at $68,000 and this will most likely be retested. Once the retest happens, you could start accumulating for the long-term.”
Bitcoin investors resist full capitulation
Other market synopses are also offering hope to panicking BTC investors.
Related: BTC price heads back to 2021: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week
Fresh analysis released Tuesday by Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of crypto asset manager Bitwise, predicted that the current “crypto winter” would soon be over.
“Retail crypto has been in a brutal winter since January 2025. Institutions just papered over that truth for certain assets for a while,” he argued, noting that the average “winter” lasted around 14 months.
Cointelegraph further reported on strong conviction among Bitcoin derivatives traders after enduring a drawdown of more than 40%.
The US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen net outflows of $3.2 billion since mid-January — just 3% of their total assets under management.
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