Bitcoin (BTC) rose to its highest level in ten months on April 10 as traders await this week’s April 12 Consumer Price Index report to gain deeper insight into the Federal Reserve’s fight against sticky inflation. If the report shows inflation dropping, it could be the next possible catalyst that furthers BTC's upward move.
On April 10, BTC price soared 3.37% to over $29,300 after a quiet Easter weekend. Interestingly, Bitcoin’s intraday gains appeared alongside a drop in U.S. equities, a rare decoupling that highlights the coin’s diminishing risk-on characteristics.
The pre-CPI dynamic could be in effect
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release March Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on April 12, which is expected to show inflation down to 5.1% from 6.0% year-over-year previously.
A slowdown in headline CPI increases the prospects of the Federal Reserve shifting in a more dovish direction. Conversely, persistent inflationary forces could lead traders to bet on more interest rate hikes in May.
Bitcoin’s rise above $29,000 suggest that crypto traders have been pricing in a drop in inflation, which, in turn, could lead to a potential Fed pivot.
Nonetheless, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback’s strength against a basket of top foreign currencies, climbed 0.7% on April 10, which, alongside a weaker U.S. stock market, shows macro investors see a rate hike ahead.
In fact, the market sees a 70% probability of the Fed lifting rates by 25 basis points at its meeting in May, according to the CME Fed Watch Tool. That could be due to a tightening labor market that gives the Fed more ammunition to continue raising lending rates in the future.
Could Bitcoin hit $30,000 in April?
From a fundamental perspective, Bitcoin looks prepared to hit $30,000 ahead of the Fed FOMC. However, its likelihood of holding those gains will depend on the inflation data, as mentioned above.
Meanwhile, from a technical analysis standpoint, Bitcoin must close above its weekly resistance range — defined by the $29,500 to $32,000 area — to eye a run-up toward $40,000.
This range served as support in the December 2020 to February 2021, May 2021 to July 2021 and January 2022 to March 2022 sessions.
In the event of a pullback from the mentioned range, BTC price risks a sharp decline toward its 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; the red wave) near $25,250 and its 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA; the blue wave) near $25,000.
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