Bitcoin’s (BTC) end-of-year rally toward $90,000 appeared to be stalling due to a lack of demand and weak onchain activity. Still, a new technical setup suggested that momentum may increase once the BTC/USD pair breaks above $90,000.
Key takeaways:
Apparent demand and buying from US investors must recover to secure a new year rally for BTC.
Bitcoin must next take out immediate resistance at $90,000 to trigger a rally going into 2026.
Bitcoin apparent demand flips negative
Bitcoin’s apparent demand has flipped negative after falling to its lowest level since October, as traders and investors adopted a risk-off approach into the new year.
Related: Bitfinex whales go long BTC for 2026: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
Capriole Investment’s Bitcoin Apparent Demand metric reveals that the demand for Bitcoin has dropped sharply over the last two weeks to -3,491 BTC on Monday, levels last seen on Oct. 21.
Bitcoin's apparent demand has been positive since Nov. 6, peaking at around 18,700 BTC on Nov. 26, before reversing sharply as shown in the chart below. The negative value suggests declining demand.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the difference in pricing between the BTC/USD pair on the largest US exchange, Coinbase, and Binance’s BTC/USDT equivalent, has also dropped sharply over the last two weeks.
The chart below shows that the index has tanked to the current value of -0.08 from 0.031 on Dec. 11.
The Coinbase premium is an indicator of demand from US retail investors, and a negative value indicates more selling pressure.
“The Coinbase $BTC Premium Index is still printing deep red bars, signalling that US selling pressure hasn't lifted yet,” said analyst Mv_Crypto in a recent X post, adding:
“Until this metric recovers, approaching the long side requires extreme caution.”
As Cointelegraph reported, spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to bleed, recording $782 million in outflows last week, indicating risk-off appetite among institutional investors.
An increase in demand-side pressure, reinforced by a return of spot ETF inflows, is required for a sustained rally in 2026.
Bitcoin price must reclaim $90,000
Data from TradingView shows the BTC/USD pair trading 6.6% below its yearly open of $93,300, risking the first-ever post-halving “red” year.
Bitcoin’s bullish case now hinges on bulls overcoming the resistance at $90,000, an area that acted as formidable support in early December.
The price has been rejected four times from this level since Dec. 15, as shown in the chart below.
Since the price is still holding the support at $84,000, momentum should start to return once the bulls reclaim the $90,000-$92,000 zone.
Zooming out, crypto analyst Jelle said a “potential hidden bullish divergence” on the monthly chart suggests an impending upward breakout.
“Bitcoin needs to end the month in the green to lock in; close above $90,360 and we're golden.”
Captain Faibik shared a chart showing that the $90,000 level coincided with the upper trendline of a descending broadening wedge on the eight-hour timeframe.
A breakout from this pattern would lead to a rally toward the measured target of the wedge at $122,000.
“If the breakout is successful, January could be a bullish month.”
Other analysts said that Bitcoin could continue with its range-bound price action until volatility returns and a cleaner chart pattern emerges.
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
