Key takeaways:
XRP price hinges on $2.75 support, risking a drop toward $2.07.
Rising NUPL signals increased profit-taking, hinting $3.18 was the local top.
Some analysts insist XRP’s macro setup is still bullish with price targets above $5.
XRP (XRP) was down on Monday, dropping 5% over the last 24 hours to trade at $2.80. The inability to hold above $3 now puts the altcoin’s uptrend in question, at least for the near term.
Classic XRP pattern targets $2.07
On the daily candle chart, XRP is playing out a classic descending triangle formation, a bearish continuation pattern marked by a downward-sloping resistance trendline and a flat, horizontal support line.
Related: Ripple vs. SEC: How the lawsuit strengthened XRP’s narrative
A daily candlestick close below the triangle’s support trendline could trigger a fresh sell-off, with the technical target near $2.07, calculated by adding the triangle’s height to the potential breakout point at around $2.75.
Such a move would represent a 26% drop from the current price.
XRP is currently trading below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA, the yellow wave) and 100-day SMA (the red wave), reinforcing bearish bias.
The 200-day SMA at $2.52 could provide relief for the bulls, potentially avoiding a deeper correction toward $2.
The relative strength index (RSI) has dropped from 50 to 39 over the last 24 hours, indicating increasing downward momentum.
XRP’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has also flashed warning signs. The metric is currently within the 0.5–0.6 zone, a level historically linked with local tops.
With more than 94% of supply in profit at current prices, there is a likelihood of an increase in sell-side pressure. Such setups in 2017, 2021 and January 2025 preceded sharp corrections, raising the possibility of similar pullbacks over the next few days.
Is XRP price in a technical correction?
Despite the pullback, analysts are convinced that XRP bulls are still in control on higher time frames.
As Cointelegraph reported, the price remains bullish in the weekly candle chart, with a bull flag that has been in play since the November 2024 rally, suggesting that XRP could rise as high as $15.
Spotting a similar setup, crypto analyst CryptoBull said XRP price could rally to $5 in October.
“While the lower time frames (LTF) are worth monitoring closely. The higher time frame (HTF) trends are still crystal clear,” said analyst Egrag Crypto in a Monday post on X, suggesting that the ongoing pullback could be a technical correction.
He shared a chart showing the formation of an ascending triangle on the monthly chart with an XRP price target of $27.
In an earlier analysis, XForceGlobal said that XRP’s macro outlook remained bullish, with Elliott Wave analysis projecting a cycle top above $20 for XRP.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.