Analysis of the relationship between Bitcoin mining costs and price by Fundstrat’s Quantamental Strategist Sam Doctor has led the market research firm to predict the cryptocurrency’s range will fall between $20,000 and $64,000 by 2019 year end.
The calculations focused on Bitcoin Price to Mining Breakeven Cost Metric, known as P/BE, which Doctor says has “proven a reliable long-term support level.”
“We expect the mining economy to grow over the next several years, and project a BTC price of ~$36,000 by year end 2019 based on the historical average 1.8x P/BE multiple,” an executive summary of the findings uploaded to Twitter by cofounder Tom Lee reads.
CRYPTO: Our quant/data scientist @fundstratQuant publishing #bitcoin mining white paper. Crypto mining economics lead/explain $BTC price—suggests $39,000 per bitcoin by YE19. key takeaways below... pic.twitter.com/f5ZQ4py3jS— Thomas Lee (@fundstrat) May 10, 2018
The price target is broadly in line with Lee’s own recent prediction of $25,000 by the end of 2018.
Remaining bullish on Bitcoin has characterized both Lee and Fundstrat in recent months, a previous survey in April revealing that 82% of institutional investors believed prices had already “bottomed out.”
The survey also contained a prediction question, with the highest number of respondents opting for a range of between $10,000 and $20,000 by the end of this year.