The United States Consumer Price Index soared to 9.1% in June, exceeding expectations of an 8.8% rise year-on-year. Currently, the Fed funds futures point to an 81 basis points rate hike for July, suggesting that some participants anticipate a 100 basis points hike.
Several on-chain indicators have been pointing to a likely bottom in Bitcoin (BTC) but the analysts from market intelligence firm Glassnode are not convinced that the low has been made. In “The Week On-Chain” report on July 11, the analysts said that the market may have to fall further “to fully test investor resolve, and enable the market to establish a resilient bottom.”
While the short term remains bearish, strategists are confident about its long-term prospects. CoinShares chief strategy officer Meltem Demirors said on CNBC that Bitcoin may extend its “downward correction” in the near term but it is likely to make a new all-time high “in the next 24 months.”
What are the important levels on Bitcoin and the major altcoins that could arrest the decline? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin dropped back to the support line of the symmetrical triangle on July 12, indicating that the break above the triangle on July 7 may have been a bull trap.
The buyers are trying to defend the level but the long wick on the July 13 candlestick shows that the bears are selling near the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($20,796). Both moving averages are sloping down and the relative strength index (RSI) is in the negative zone, indicating that bears are in command.
If the price breaks below the support line, the BTC/USDT pair could drop to the $18,626 to $17,622 support zone. This is an important zone for the bulls to defend because if it gives way, the pair could decline to $15,000.
The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20-day EMA. Such a move will suggest strong buying at lower levels. That could increase the possibility of a rally to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA)($24,084).
Ether (ETH) broke below the support line of the ascending triangle pattern on July 12, which invalidated the bullish setup. A minor positive is that the bulls are trying to push the price back into the triangle.
If they manage to do that, it will suggest that the break below the triangle may have been a bear trap. The bulls will then strive to push the price back above the overhead resistance at $1,280. A break and close above the 50-day SMA ($1,383) could enhance the prospects of the start of a new up-move.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the support line, it will suggest that bears have flipped the level into resistance. The sellers will then try to sink the ETH/USDT pair below $998 and challenge the pivotal support at $881. If this support cracks, the pair could start the next leg of the downtrend.
The bulls could not capitalize on BNB's break above the 20-day EMA ($231). This failure was exploited by the bears who sold aggressively at higher levels and pulled the price back below the 20-day EMA on July 11.
The BNB/USDT pair attempted a rebound off the strong support at $211 on July 13 but the long wick on the candlestick shows that the bears are selling near the 20-day EMA. If the price breaks below $211, the selling could intensify and the pair may slide to the vital support at $183.
Conversely, if the price rebounds off $211 and rises above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest strong demand at lower levels. The buyers will then make another attempt to clear the overhead hurdle at the 50-day SMA ($253).
Ripple (XRP) plunged below the support line of the symmetrical triangle on July 11. This indicates that the uncertainty among the bulls and the bears resolved to the downside.
The bulls tried to push the price back into the triangle on July 13 but the long wick on the candlestick suggests that bears are selling on minor intraday rallies. If the price breaks below $0.30, the XRP/USDT pair could drop to the crucial support at $0.28. A break and close below this level could signal the start of the next leg of the downtrend.
The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20-day EMA ($0.33). Such a move will suggest that the slide below the triangle may have been a bear trap. The pair may signal a potential trend change on a break above the resistance line of the triangle.
Cardano (ADA) slipped below the immediate support at $0.44 on July 11, indicating that bears are in command. The selling continued and the bears pulled the price to the important support at $0.40.
The buyers attempted to start a recovery on July 13 but the long wick on the day’s candlestick shows that bears are trying to flip the $0.44 level into resistance. If the price breaks below $0.40, the selling could pick up momentum and the ADA/USDT pair could resume the downtrend. The pair could then decline to $0.33.
To invalidate this negative view, buyers will have to push and sustain the price above the moving averages. If that happens, the pair could attempt a rally to $0.60.
Solana (SOL) broke below the support line of the symmetrical triangle on July 11 and attempts by the bulls to push the price back into the triangle failed on July 12.
However, the bulls have not given up and are again trying to push the price back into the triangle on July 13. If they succeed, it will suggest that the breakdown on July 11 may have been a bear trap. The buyers will then try to overcome the barrier at the resistance line and start a new up-move toward $50.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the current level or the overhead resistance and breaks below $31, the selling could intensify and the SOL/USDT pair could drop to $26.
Dogecoin (DOGE) slipped below the 20-day EMA ($0.07) on July 10. The bears made use of this opportunity and pulled the price below the strong support at $0.06 on July 12.
If the price sustains below $0.06, the selling could pick up momentum and the DOGE/USDT pair could retest the critical support at $0.05. This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break below it could signal the resumption of the downtrend. The pair could then drop to $0.04.
Alternatively, if the price rises from the current level, the buyers will try to push the pair above the moving averages. If they succeed, the pair could rise to $0.08 and next to $0.10.
Polkadot (DOT) broke and closed below the crucial support of $6.36 on July 12, indicating aggressive selling by the bears. A minor positive is that the RSI has maintained the positive divergence, indicating that the bearish momentum may be ending.
The buyers are trying to push the price back above $6.36 and trap the aggressive bears. If that happens, the DOT/USDT pair could rally to the overhead resistance at $7.30. The buyers will have to clear this hurdle and the 50-day SMA ($8.04) to indicate that the downtrend may be over.
Conversely, if the price fails to sustain above $6.36, it will suggest that bears remain in control. The sellers will then try to resume the downtrend and sink the pair to $5.
Shiba Inu (SHIB) dropped below the psychological level at $0.000010 on July 12, indicating strong selling by the bears. A minor positive is that the bulls purchased the dip and are attempting to sustain the price back above $0.000010.
Both moving averages have flattened out and the RSI is just below the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. In a range, traders generally buy near the support and sell close to the resistance.
If buyers drive the price above the moving averages, the SHIB/USDT pair could attempt a rally to $0.000012. The bulls will have to clear this resistance to open the doors for a possible rally to $0.000014. This view could invalidate on a break below $0.000009.
The repeated failure of the buyers to sustain UNUS SED LEO (LEO) above $6 suggests a lack of demand at higher levels. That may have attracted selling from the aggressive bears.
The price turned down from $5.91 on July 10 and plunged below the 20-day EMA ($5.60). This was followed by further selling, which pulled the price below the 50-day SMA ($5.42) on July 12. If bears sustain the price below the 50-day SMA, the LEO/USD pair could drop toward the support line of the descending channel.
Conversely, if the price rebounds off the current level, the bulls will make another attempt to clear the overhead hurdle at the resistance line and challenge the crucial level at $6. A break and close above this level could signal the start of a new up-move.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.