Three signs that Bitcoin price could be near ‘full capitulation’

Bitcoin (BTC) sellers resumed their activity on Thursday as the BTC price dropped below $69,000, the lowest since Nov. 6, 2024.

Analysts said that Bitcoin showed signs of “full capitulation” and a potential bottom forming, due to extreme market fear, panic selling by short-term holders and the relative strength index (RSI).

Key takeaways:

• Short-term Bitcoin holders have sold nearly 60,000 BTC in 24 hours.

• The Crypto Fear & Greed index shows “extreme fear,” signaling a potential bottom.

• Bitcoin’s “most oversold” RSI points to seller exhaustion.

Short-term holder capitulation deepens

Nearly 60,000 BTC, worth about $4.2 billion at current rates, held by short-term holders (STHs), or investors who have held the asset for less than 155 days, were moved to exchanges at a loss over the last 24 hours, according to data from CryptoQuant.

This was the largest exchange inflow year-to-date, which is contributing to selling pressure.

“The correction is so severe that no BTC in profit is being moved by LTHs,” CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said in a post on X, adding:

“This is a full capitulation.”

When analyzing the volume of coins spent at a loss, Glassnode found that the 7-day SMA of realized losses has risen above $1.26 billion per day.

This reflects a “marked increase in fear,” Glassnode said, adding:

“Historically, spikes in realized losses often coincide with moments of acute seller exhaustion, where marginal sell pressure begins to fade.”

Bitcoin’s capitulation metric has also “printed its second-largest spike in two years,” occurrences that have previously coincided with accelerated de-risking and elevated volatility as market participants reset positioning,” Glassnode said.

“Extreme fear” could signal market bottom

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall crypto market sentiment, posted an “extreme fear” score of 12 on Thursday.

These levels were last seen on July 22, a few months before the BTC price bottomed at $15,500 and then embarked on a bull run.

Data reveals that in all capitulation events where the index hit this extreme level, short-term weakness was common, but almost every event produced a rebound.

“We are at an ‘extreme fear’ level with a Crypto Fear and Greed Index of 11,” said analyst Davie Satoshi in an X post on Thursday, adding:

“History has shown this is the time to buy and accumulate more!”

Crypto sentiment platform Santiment said in an X post on Thursday that the investor sentiment has “​​turned extremely bearish toward Bitcoin.”

“This remains a strong argument for a short-term relief rally as long as the small trader crowd continues to show disbelief toward cryptocurrency as a whole.”

Bitcoin “most oversold” RSI signals seller exhaustion

CoinGlass‘ heatmap shows that BTC’s RSI is displaying oversold conditions on five out of six time frames.

Bitcoin’s RSI is now at 18 on the 12-hour chart, 20 on the daily chart and 23 on the four-hour chart. Other intervals also display oversold or near-oversold RSI values, such as 30 and 31 on the weekly and hourly time frames, respectively. 

In fact, data from TradingView shows that the weekly RSI is at 29 on Thursday, the “most oversold” since the 2022 bear market, according to analysts. 

“Bitcoin is now the MOST oversold since the FTX crash,” CryptoXLARGE said in an X post on Wednesday, adding that it reflects panic selling among investors.

“Historically, this is where fear peaks and opportunity begins,” the analyst added.

Bitcoin’s RSI is at the same oversold levels last seen around $16K in 2022, which marked the “last major capitulation,” phase, said analyst HodlFM in a recent post on X, adding:

“Not a timing signal by itself, but historically, this is where risk/reward favors the buyers.”