Key takeaways:

  • Newer Bitcoin investors sold over 148,000 BTC at a loss on Nov. 14.

  • Analysts agree that pushing Bitcoin’s price below the Jan. 1 open at $93,000 could trigger a fresh downtrend to areas below $90,000.


Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped to $92,000 on Sunday, erasing nearly all of this year’s gains as the end of the US government shutdown failed to improve investor sentiment. This has led investors and traders to reevaluate their risks and stay cautious, with the most recent buyers selling their BTC at a loss.

Bitcoin “weak hands” realize losses

Bitcoin has retraced 25% from its all-time high of $126,000 set on Oct. 16. The drop below the 50-week moving average and the weekly close below $100,000 for the first time in six months have cemented a more risk-off stance among Bitcoin investors.

Onchain data from CryptoQuant showed that over 148,000 BTC held by retail or newer entrants—those with less than 1 million BTC and having held for less than one month—were sold at a loss on Nov. 11.

Related: BTC price bull market lost? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

“This fire sale occurred with Bitcoin at roughly $96,853, a level far beneath their average purchase price of between $102,000 and $107,000,” said CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk in a Quicktake analysis on Sunday, adding:

“This was not profit-taking; this was a significant loss realized on a monumental scale.”
Bitcoin holders net daily change. Source: CryptoQuant

Additional data from Glassnode revealed that more than 20,175 BTC were transferred by short-term holders — investors who have held the asset for less than 155 days — to exchanges at a loss on Thursday. This surged to 39,034 BTC on Nov. 14, coinciding with a 13.5% drop in BTC’s price to $92,900 from $107,500. 

Bitcoin: Transfer volume by STH in loss to exchanges. Source: Glassnode

This activity underscores a familiar behavioral pattern where short-term speculators panic-sell during market dips, frequently realizing losses.

These investors are  likely facing their first major downturn and “chose to lock in a loss rather than risk steeper declines, transforming their paper losses into real ones,” the analyst said, adding:

“The sheer volume of 148,000 BTC being dumped at a loss represents a flushing out of impatient capital. While it signifies intense short-term pain, this transfer of coins from panicked sellers to steadfast buyers at a discounted price can solidify a stronger long-term base.” 

Bitcoin price could drop below $90,000 before rebounding

Bitcoin’s latest drop below the 50-week moving average has several traders and analysts calling for deeper price corrections to sub-$90,000 levels.

Crypto analyst Jelle said the price was “in a yet another corrective period, inside a larger #Bitcoin uptrend.”

Jelle added that Bitcoin is ”likely chop until the end of the year or perhaps dip 5% lower, and then start pushing up again toward new highs.”

A 5% drop from the current levels would see the BTC/USD pair extend the downtrend to $89,300.

BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: Jelle

Bitcoin analyst AlphaBTC said, “Bitcoin is due for a bounce, but … there is still one more dip below $90K to come.” 

According to AlphaBTC, a close below the yearly open at $93,300 could see the price drop lower, possibly bottoming around April lows of $74,000.

Meanwhile, prediction market platform Polymarket projects different price outcomes for the rest of the week. The most likely outcome for BTC is now $98,000 at 70%, while a close below $92,000 is at 55% probability, and 35% odds of a drop toward $90,000. The chances of the price reclaiming $100,000 are at 50%. 

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin could extend its downtrend to fill orders at the bid within the $88,500 to $92,000 zone. 

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.