BTC will hit $1M by 2030... but Arthur Hayes is buying ETH instead

Bitcoin has all the factors in place to a seven-figure price over the next four years, according to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes.

But he’s buying ETH right now, because he believes it could easily do a “3x to 5x pretty quickly.”

On the latest episode of Trade Secrets, Hayes says the collapse of the AI bubble, “massive” money printing, and potential US yield curve control are among some of the reasons why Bitcoin could go to $1 million by 2030

“We have the ingredients. The time is now. So I think the $58,000 was probably the bottom in Bitcoin, and now it’s going to grind higher in this hate fuck rally,” the 41-year-old billionaire says.

Hayes’ prediction comes just a couple of weeks after 10x Research head of research Markus Thielen told Trade Secrets that reaching that figure by 2030 was “mathematically impossible.” He argued that the amount of capital inflows Bitcoin saw over the past 15 years that pushed it to the current price suggest it has little chance of attracting the trillions in inflows over the next four years required to reach $1 million.

Arthur Hayes loses interest in Hyperliquid

While Hayes is still bullish on Bitcoin, he is less optimistic than he once was about Hyperliquid’s future upside d.

Bitcoin is up 22.15% over the past 30 days. (CoinMarketCap)

“I don’t think there’s that type of asymmetry in the price right now. Everybody knows that Hyperliquid is here,” he says. “It’s not an it’s not this like unknown thing that’s outperforming expectations, right? [...] There are massive expectations now on Hyperliquid.”

“That doesn’t necessarily mean it’s not going to go up in price, but I think there’s better risk-reward at least for the capital at Maelstrom to deploy into the shitcoin space than Hype,” he says.

The comments come shortly after US President Donald Trump said the US is working to bring Hyperliquid into the country. However, Hayes, who was pardoned by Trump in 2024, now says the president has little influence over crypto asset prices.

“It’s irrelevant. What Trump says or does is irrelevant. Look at what Bessant does. Read the Treasury, read the Fed, read the monetary authorities. Like Trump is just a very entertaining politician, but he has no effect on the price of Bitcoin,” Hayes says.

Hayes also questioned whether Trump would be willing to spend the political capital required to push through crypto legislation such as the CLARITY Act, particularly when other issues matter more to the average voter. He suggested that the “median under-sighted voter” does not care about the legislation.

Hayes ‘feels excellent’ about BitMEX shutdown

Hayes began his career as an equity derivatives trader at Deutsche Bank and Citibank in Hong Kong after graduating from the University of Pennsylvania in 2008. 

Hayes co-founded the pioneering crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX in 2014 alongside Ben Dolo and Samuel Reed. The exchange recently announced it would be shutting down on Sept. 23 and urged users to close positions and withdraw funds before the deadline.

Hayes says it “feels excellent” that the exchange is shutting down on its own terms.

“We shut it down because we wanted to shut it down, not because we got hacked,” he says, adding that it is the “best way” to go.

“We landed the plane on our own terms,” he adds. 

Hayes says that competition is now so fierce that running a crypto exchange now is “really a mug’s game” unless you have the scale of a major player like Binance or OKX.

“There’s no point in even playing because it’s just so expensive to secure it, so expensive to run the tech in the data centers, like it doesn’t make any sense as a business,” Hayes says.

Hayes’s number one pick is Ethereum

Hayes says that his “number one pick” at the moment is Ethereum. “I think that is a better risk-reward for a spare unit of fiat that’s gonna be deployed into crypto than Hyperliquid,” he says. 

“That doesn’t necessarily mean that Hyperliquid won’t rise in price. I just don’t think it’s poised for a 5x, and like where I think Ethereum could do, you know, 3x to 5x pretty quickly,” he says.

“Everybody hates it. It’s the one megacap crypto that has not eclipsed its 2021 all-time high.”

Hayes points out that it is the base layer for DeFi and, while “hated” for many reasons, is long overdue for a surge. “I think now it’s time to perform because it’s been so beaten down and so forgotten. And we saw it rip 20% when Bitcoin ripped,” he says.