Bitcoin whale 'still short' BTC despite facing $13M in losses

A Bitcoin (BTC) whale is now down about $13 million as BTC price has rebounded by around 40% from its February lows. However, the trader continues to stand by the short position.

Key takeaways:

• A trader known as “pension-usdt.eth” is short 1,000 BTC worth roughly $81 million using 3x leverage.
• The BTC short position will be fully liquidated at $100,810, while Kalshi bettors now assign a 50% probability of BTC reaching $100,000 in 2026.

Nearly $81 million risks liquidation if BTC hits $100,000

Known by the moniker 'pension-usdt.eth,' the trader is short 1,000 BTC, worth about $81.06 million, with 3x cross leverage, according to data gathered by HypurrScan.IO.

The position, with exposure of over $80.87 million, was opened when BTC was trading for $67,990. As of Tuesday, the cryptocurrency had risen to around $81,000–$82,000, leaving the short position down just shy of $13 million.

BTC and ETH short positions of pension-usdt.eth as of May 12. Source: HypurrScan.IO

The trader also holds a 20,000 Ether (ETH) short worth about $46.1 million, bringing total bearish exposure to more than $127 million.

Funding from both short BTC and ETH positions has added over $125,000, though that is dwarfed by the unrealized loss.

The drawdown is notable because pension-usdt.eth once had 20 straight wins and a win rate above 85%, said data resource Lookonchain in its April post.

Nonetheless, the trader confirmed that he is "still short," and that "the trade makes sense."

Source: X

The comments came as Bitcoin showed signs of upside exhaustion near a strong resistance confluence. This resistance level includes the 200-day simple moving average (200-day SMA, blue line) and the upper boundary of a rising wedge pattern, both around $82,430.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

A successful resolution of the wedge pattern will increase Bitcoin's odds of dropping toward the measured target around $71,500. The trader’s unrealized loss on the 1,000 BTC short would shrink to roughly $3.5 million if that happens.

Analyst Crypto Kid further stressed that a rejection from the 200-day SMA has historically signaled prolonged bear markets.

"The last two times this retest occurred at the same point in Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, we dropped an average of 68%," he said in a Monday post.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

A similar drawdown from current levels would send the BTC price under $30,000, turning pension-usdt.eth's trade into a profit of roughly $38 million.

Analysts say Bitcoin's structure no longer resembles prior bear markets

Some analysts argue that the current Bitcoin setup no longer resembles previous bear-market conditions.

Analyst CRG noted that during the 2022 bear cycle, Bitcoin did not post a single daily close above the Ichimoku cloud. This zone often serves as dynamic resistance in downtrends and support in uptrends.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView/CRG

BTC’s eventual breakout above the cloud marked the start of a "new bull market."

As of May, BTC was already trading comfortably above the daily cloud. For CRG, that weakens the bearish comparison with the last cycle.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView/CRG

Pierre Rochard, CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, echoed a similar view, arguing that the current bear market has “materially decoupled from past cycles.”

Bitcoin drawdown from all-time highs to cycle lows. Source: Pierre Rochard

In a Tuesday post, Rochard said Bitcoin’s relative strength likely comes from a combination of steady ETF inflows and continued accumulation by Bitcoin treasury companies such as Strategy.

Related: Bitcoin price eyes $96K as institutions absorb 500% of daily BTC supply

On Kalshi, a prediction market platform, bettors now see 50% chance of Bitcoin hitting $100,000 in 2026.

Bitcoin price targets for 2026. Source: Kalshi

Pension-usdt.eth's $81 million Bitcoin position will be liquidated entirely if the BTC price reaches $100,810.