Key takeaways:
Bitcoin futures premium stays in neutral range despite higher demand for price protection.
Global economic uncertainty drives interest in hedging, not direct bets on falling BTC prices.
BTC options traders show more caution
Bitcoin (BTC) failed to reclaim the $115,500 mark on Monday amid heightened demand for downside price protection through BTC options. Bitcoin bears could seize the opportunity to push Bitcoin below $112,000, regardless if this move reflects global trade war uncertainty.
Cryptocurrency traders are generally optimistic, so demand for put (sell) options is typically about 50% lower than for equivalent call (buy) contracts. The current 90% put-to-call ratio points to growing interest in neutral-to-bearish strategies. Readings above 100%, seen on Friday and Saturday, signal fear and are considered highly unusual.
This surge in demand for downside protection has driven put options to trade at a premium over call options. In healthy markets, the skew metric usually stays in a neutral -6% to +6% range. At +7%, the current reading marks the highest level in four months, showing traders are willing to pay extra to guard against negative price shocks.
Bitcoin options data not necessarily bearish
While such data may seem bearish at first glance, it does not necessarily mean traders are betting on a Bitcoin price decline. Hedging occurs for many reasons, particularly during periods of negative external pressures such as import tariffs and concerns over excessive concentration in artificial intelligence bets, with Nvidia (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT) now the largest companies by market capitalization.
Earnings from “real world” companies have disappointed for various reasons. Caterpillar (CAT) projected potential $1.5 billion losses tied to US import tariffs in 2025. Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil producer, reported a 19% year-over-year drop in net profit due to lower global oil prices.
Kleenex tissue maker Kimberly Clark (KMB) also lowered its annual profit forecast, citing $300 million in expected costs from import tariffs. Similarly, heating, ventilation, and air conditioning specialist Carrier Global (CARR) cut its full-year outlook, while United Parcel Service (UPS) reported a 3% revenue decline from the prior year.
US Treasury Yields signal increased risk aversion
Even if demand for AI remains strong in the second half of 2025, traders appear less willing to hold riskier assets amid uncertainty in global markets.
Yields on the US 10-year Treasury fell to 4.21% on Tuesday from 4.32% a week earlier, showing investors are accepting lower returns for the safety of government-issued bonds, a classic sign of risk aversion.
To determine whether Bitcoin traders are actively betting on a price crash, it is essential to examine BTC monthly futures contracts. Heavy demand for bearish positions pushes the annualized premium below the 5% neutral threshold.
Related: BlackRock Bitcoin fund sees largest outflow in 9 weeks
Currently, the 7% premium on BTC monthly futures remains comfortably within the neutral 5% to 10% range. Notably, this metric held steady even during Sunday’s $112,000 retest, indicating resilience.
Uncertainty in macroeconomic conditions remains the primary driver behind the elevated demand for downside protection via BTC options. However, there is little evidence that professional traders are positioning for a Bitcoin price crash to $110,000.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.