A multibillion-dollar guessing game over an investor exodus from Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has pushed the price of Bitcoin (BTC) below $39,000 for the first time in nearly two months.
Since its successful conversion to a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) on Jan. 11, GBTC has posted over $3.4 billion in outflows, with Grayscale subsequently depositing billions in Bitcoin to crypto exchange Coinbase Prime — likely for sale.
However, there are fears that the GBTC exodus has a longer road to travel. According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, GBTC recorded outflows of $515 million on Jan. 23 and has now bled 13% of its shares outstanding. He noted, however, that the latest figures suggest outflows could be slowing.
Once again the “experts” told you the GBTC outflows had ended and once again they were wrong. #Bitcoin
— Magoo PhD (@HodlMagoo) January 23, 2024
In a poll on X (formerly Twitter), Balchunas asked users how much further bleeding would occur before the “mass exodus ended.” Nearly half of the respondents said this could go to between 35–50%, though Balchunas and fellow Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart estimated this would happen at around 25% of outstanding shares.
Grayscale’s website shows there are currently 600.5 million shares outstanding, with a total of 536,694.9 Bitcoin in trust. Meanwhile, data from CC15Capital shows 82,525 Bitcoin has left GBTC since Jan. 10.
Stop panic selling your #Bitcoin just because you see panic-inducing tweets about $GBTC coins being sent to Coinbase every morning around 9:30am.
— CC15Capital (@Capital15C) January 24, 2024
All $BTC sold by @Grayscale so far has been scooped up by the other (lower-fee) ETFs pic.twitter.com/1H3S5FFbnU
The recent outflows are attributed to the defunct crypto exchange FTX, which reportedly sold two-thirds of 22.3 million shares in GBTC over three days of trading. FTX is understood to still have around eight million shares worth roughly $281 million yet to be sold.
Related: Spot Bitcoin ETFs’ on-chain addresses found by Arkham
Meanwhile, some observers worry that Bitcoin from Mt. Gox may soon start to move after the Mt. Gox trustee reportedly reached out to creditors to complete identity verification for crypto exchange accounts. The accounts are set to be used to repay Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash (BCH), potentially adding more pressure to the price of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $39,949, up 0.60% on the day, according to data from CoinMarketCap. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index hit a 100-day low of 48 on Jan. 24.
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