Key points:
Bitcoin is bearish in the short term and could plunge to $50,000 if the $74,508 level is breached.
The short-term trend is likely to turn bullish above $100,000, opening the doors for a rally to $126,199.
Bitcoin (BTC) began 2025 near $93,000, before plunging to $74,500 in April and then rallying to $126,199 in October. BTC has given up a large part of its gains and is on track to end the year with minor losses.
Analysts are divided on BTC’s future prospects. Some believe that BTC has topped out and a bear market is likely, while others expect limited downside and a rally to a new all-time high in 2026.
Another interesting thing to watch will be if BTC follows its four-year cycle or not. Many believe that Bitcoin favorable regulation, the launch of BTC exchange-traded funds and institutional demand for BTC makes the four-year cycle redundant.
While it is difficult to predict the future with certainty, charts provide insight into potential outcomes. Traders may keep a close watch on the support and resistance levels highlighted in the article and use them as an aid for formulating trading strategies. Let’s analyze the monthly and weekly charts to gain a long-term view of BTC.
Bitcoin price prediction
Bitcoin has been forming a series of higher highs and higher lows on the monthly charts, indicating an uptrend.
During the previous two corrections, the Bitcoin price found support at the 20-month exponential moving average ($88,049), making it a crucial support to watch out for.
If the price closes below the 20-month EMA and the April low of $74,508, the sequence of higher lows will be broken. Such a move suggests that demand is drying up, and buyers are waiting for lower levels to enter. That may put the brakes on the uptrend, pulling the price down toward $50,000.
Instead, if the price turns up from the 20-week EMA and rises above the psychological $100,000 level, it suggests that the uptrend remains intact. The bulls will then attempt to drive the price to the all-time high of $126,199, where the bears are expected to mount a strong defense. If the buyers prevail, the BTC/USDT pair could start the next leg of the uptrend to $141,188 and then to $178,621.
Zooming in on BTC’s weekly charts, the near-term looks bearish. The moving averages are on the verge of completing a bearish crossover for the first time since January 2022. The previous bearish crossover resulted in an extended downtrend.
The pair is likely to drop to the $74,508 level, where the buyers are expected to mount a strong defense. However, when the sentiment is negative, rallies are viewed as a selling opportunity. In April 2022, bears halted the rally at the moving averages, and the downtrend resumed.
If history repeats and the price turns down from the moving averages, the pair may again drop to the $74,508 level. The repeated retest of a support level tends to weaken it. A break and close below the $74,508 level may then form a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, opening the gates for a decline to $50,000. Such a move could delay the resumption of the uptrend, as markets tend to consolidate after a sharp decline, as seen from June 2022 to February 2023.
The negative view will be invalidated if the price turns up and breaks above the moving averages. That suggests the $74,508 level is acting as a floor. The pair may then dash toward the $126,199 resistance.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
