Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), dropped to a year-to-date low of $1,927 on Thursday, and is currently down more than 60% from its all-time high of $4,950.
Analysts said the decline is stress-testing holders’ conviction, and onchain and crypto exchange inflow data point to the start of a bear market. Despite the selling intensity, one group of Ether holders has been buying, but whether this will help ETH reclaim $2,000 is to be determined.
Key takeaways:
Mid-sized holders (100–10,000 ETH) reduced their holdings, signaling a capitulation phase.
Large holders (10,000-plus ETH) have increased exposure during the last quarter, absorbing sell pressure for the altcoin.
ETH is trading below the realized price for all investor cohorts, and the rising exchange inflows keep downside risk elevated.
Onchain data shows who’s holding, adding and capitulating
Over the past five months, the Ether balance-by-holder-value data shows a clear change in behavior across different wallet sizes.
The metric clarifies which investors are absorbing downside pressure and which are exiting as prices return to May 2025 levels.
Data from CryptoQuant noted that on August 18, 2025, wallets holding 100–1,000 ETH controlled 9.79 million ETH, 1,000–10,000 held 14.51 million ETH, 10,000–100,000 held 17.18 million ETH, and 100,000-plus wallets held 2.75 million ETH.
On Wednesday, the balances of the 100–1,000 and 1,000–10,000 cohorts fell to 8.32 million ETH and 12.26 million ETH, respectively.
In contrast, 10,000–100,000 wallets increased holdings to 19.77 million ETH, while 100,000-plus wallets expanded to 3.68 million ETH.
The data pointed to accumulation by whales and large entities, while smaller and mid-sized holders appear to be distributing into the current price weakness.
Ether is also trading below the realized price of every cohort, which reflects the average cost basis at which each group last moved its ETH. Realized prices cluster between $2,120 for 100,000-plus holders and $2,690 for 100–1,000 holders, with ETH briefly closing below the aggregate realized price of $2,630 on Saturday, a level linked with stress-driven selling.
Related: Ethereum price: Classic chart pattern puts sub-$2K ETH in focus
Exchange inflows and taker data keep pressure on ETH’s price
Ether exchange inflows on Binance surged to about 1.63 million ETH on Wednesday, the highest daily reading since 2022. Large inflows may reflect preparation to sell or rebalance, and an inflows spike during a weak price action phase reinforces the concern.
Market execution data adds to that picture. Crypto analyst PelinayPA noted that Ether’s Binance taker buy/sell ratio sits “around 0.94,” below the neutral level of 1. Both the 30 and 50-day averages remain under 1, suggesting selling pressure is the dominant trend rather than a temporary phase.
PelinayPA added that this may also mark the beginning of a “true bear season” for the altcoin, expecting difficult price conditions to persist for a while longer.”
Related: Vitalik Buterin sells $6.6M in ETH after flagging planned withdrawals
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