Ether (ETH) dropped by over 7.5% in its Bitcoin (BTC) pair in 2023. But ETH/BTC may wipe its year-to-date losses entirely in April, as Ethereum’s long-awaited Shanghai hard fork is just days away.
The upgrade is set for April 12, enabling Ethereum stakers to withdraw around 1.1 billion ETH in rewards — worth over $2 billion as of April 8.
ETH price undergoes key technical bounce
Many experts see the hard fork as bullish for Ether in the long term. For instance, the Shanghai buzz has helped Ether outperform Bitcoin in April.
As a result, the ETH/BTC pair has risen by about 4.75% month-to-date to reach 0.066 BTC as of April 8, a nearly 8% rebound since March 20.
The bounce was largely expected, particularly as ETH/BTC dropped to its historical ascending trendline support. Now, the upside move raises the prospects of an extended bullish retracement toward its descending trendline resistance, marked as a “sell zone” in the chart below.
The fractal-based outlook puts Ether on target for 0.075 BTC by June, up 10% versus current price levels. Meanwhile, the pair’s upside target for April appears to be its 50-3D exponential moving average (50-3D EMA; the red wave) near 0.069 BTC.
Conversely, a decisive close below the 200-3D EMA (the blue wave) near 0.066 BTC, coinciding support/resistance level near 0.067 BTC, risks delaying or — in the worst case scenario — invalidating the bullish retracement setup.
This bearish argument echoes independent market analyst CrediBULL Crypto who expects strong selling pressure near the 0.067 BTC resistance level that would lead to a 50% drop in 2023.
Ethereum vs. U.S. dollar outlook
The ETH/USD pair has rallied by more than 50% in 2023, primarily due to similar uptrends elsewhere in the crypto market.
A weakening dollar, lower U.S. Treasury yields and expectations of a Federal Reserve pivot on interest rate hikes have helped cryptocurrencies rise across the board in Q1. These catalysts will likely remain in the spotlight until May’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
Shanghai bringing the first greenshoots of #AltcoinSeason ?$ETH is perking up to an 8 month high as we approach one week until the Shanghai fork update @ 10:27:35 PM UTC on the 12th (Epoch #620,9536)— Rich Rosenblum (@Rich_GSR) April 4, 2023
The rally has mostly been a Fed/USD rates story, causing BTC to lead the way.… pic.twitter.com/dI0bpywR16
As a result, Ether could sustain its yearly gains in April, consolidating inside the $1,800–2,000 range until the Fed decision.
Related: 3 key Ethereum price metrics cast doubt on the strength of ETH’s recent rally
Moreover, a decisive breakout at current levels could result in extended gains with a second-quarter ETH price target of over $3,000.
On the other hand, the bears will attempt to pull the price down for a close below $1,800, with the triangle’s lower trendline near $1,600 as its downside target.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.