Bitcoin (BTC) is holding down the fort as the US trade war rages on into the third week of April.
BTC price action attempts to overcome a long-term resistance trend line without success as trade war concerns dictate tradersâ expectations.
Tariffs are the key macroeconomic topic of the week as risk assets brace for potential surprise headlines.
Bitcoin ETFs lost almost $800 million in a week, while Strategy indicates it has purchased the dip.
Despite tariff pressures, the weakness of the US dollar could be a blessing in disguise for Bitcoin and risky assets.
Global M2 money supply is at an all-time high and rising; will Bitcoin follow history and replicate its past?
Bulls battle a key BTC price resistance line
With traders on the lookout for tariff-related volatility this week, BTC price analysis is zooming out.
BTC/USD closed last week up 6.7%, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Next, however, comes the real test, breaking beyond a downward-sloping trend line that has capped the upside for months.
$BTC - #Bitcoin: Iâm watching this chart closely. We might be ready. pic.twitter.com/Dtv1jkrzkP
â Crypto Caesar (@CryptoCaesarTA) April 12, 2025
âRejected at key resistance, following the trendline perfectly,â trader Bitbull wrote in his latest post on the topic on X.Â
âIf the breakdown continues, eyes on the $70K-$72K support zone for a possible bounce.â
BTC/USD 12-hour chart. Source: Bitbull/X
Fellow trader and analyst Rekt Capital is also eyeing the trend line as a breakout proves hard to confirm.
âBitcoin has Daily Closed above the Downtrend. Thus, breakout confirmation is underway,â he told X followers over the weekend.
âHowever BTC has previously Daily Closed above the Downtrend but failed its retest (a few of the red circles). Retest needs to be successful and it is in progress.â
BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X
Popular trader AK47 on X posted separate upside and downside BTC price targets, depending on the outcome of the trend line retest.
â$BTC might push to $88K â but donât get too comfy,â he cautioned.
âCould be a fakeout, grabbing liquidity before dipping to $81K for that inverse head & shoulders setup. If that plays out, $95Kâ$100K isnât far.â
BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: AK47/X
Tariff talk keeps markets on edge
A quieter week for US macroeconomic data leaves initial jobless claims as the highlight while the ongoing trade war continues to dominate.
With China in focus, risk assets and crypto face flash volatility should more surprises involving trade tariffs surface.
The weekend saw snap relief in that respect as US President Donald Trump announced a pause on tariffs for key tech products. As a result, Bitcoin climbed to 11-day highs above $86,000.
Subsequent indications that the measures would be temporary then put renewed pressure on stocksâ futures, while BTC/USD retreated to circle $84,000 at the time of writing.
âWe think the âtariff exemptionsâ announced this weekend were originally intended to be temporary,â trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of an X reaction.Â
âThe goal was to bring treasury yields back down before resuming the trade war.â
S&P 500 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Kobeissi suggested that markets had originally considered the move as a signal that the trade war might end completely, only to be disappointed a day later.
âBonds will likely still rally along with stocks, but uncertainty has only grown. The bond market is king,â it added.
Continuing, trading firm Mosaic Asset agreed that bonds may have been crucial in altering policy trajectory last week.
âItâs the volatility in other areas of the markets like currencies and Treasury bonds that might have forced a quick pivot on trade and tariff policy,â it summarized in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, âThe Market Mosaic,â on April 13.
âThe uncertainty around tariffs has become a binary and unpredictable event for the stock market. Signs of tensions fuel further downside, while an easing of tensions sends stocks sharply in the other direction.â
Bitcoin ETF outflow âbarely registersâ
A sign of how turbulent last week was came in the form of net flows from the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
In one of the worst weeks ever for the ETF products since their debut in early 2024, total outflows passed $750 million.
For network economist Timothy Peterson, however, there is little to worry about.
Zooming out, he noted that even a nine-figure drawdown such as this makes hardly any difference to the overall investment pool that the ETFs have created in little more than a year.
âLast week, US Bitcoin ETFs had their 5th worst week ever (in terms of outflows). Over $700 million. Yet it barely registers as a blip on the chart,â he told X followers.Â
âThat's how big Bitcoin has become. That's how sticky these investments are.â
US spot Bitcoin ETF balances. Source: Timothy Peterson/X
Among major investors seeking to âbuy the dip,â meanwhile, was business intelligence firm Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), whose co-founder Michael Saylor hinted that it was upping its BTC exposure this weekend.
âNo Tariffs on Orange Dots,â he wrote in an X post alongside a chart of Strategyâs acquisitions.Â
Strategy Bitcoin holdings data. Source: Michael Saylor
Whether Bitcoin will emerge as an attractive proposition for the institutional investor cohort while trade war uncertainty continues is dubious.
A survey by Bank of America in late March showed that respondents overwhelmingly favored gold as a volatility hedge, with 58% choosing it.
âThis compares to just 9% for 30-year Treasury Bonds and 3% for Bitcoin,â Kobeissi wrote while reporting on the findings.Â
âThrow in the US deficit spending crisis and gold quickly becomes the only global safe haven asset.â
BoA survey results. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X
Dollar dive gives risk assets hope of relief
The US dollar may yet provide some light at the end of the tunnel for wary risk-asset traders this week.
The trade war has taken its toll on the greenback, and when measured against major trading partner currencies, its weakness is plain to see.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell to three-year lows last week and, at the time of writing, is challenging those lows once more.
Markets selling dollar even lower Monday. DXY fell through 100 and also the 2023 low over last few hours, now at lowest in 3 years pic.twitter.com/MJ8wvvJuY2
â David Ingles (@DavidInglesTV) April 14, 2025
While far from constant, Bitcoinâs relationship with dollar strength tends to show that gains occur after major DXY losses, albeit with a delay of several months.
To that end, popular analytics account Bitcoindata21 is eyeing a repeat of events from 2017, resulting in BTC/USD all-time highs at the end of the year.
US Dollar Index (DXY) fractal. Source: Bitcoindata21/X
Another chart uploaded to X over the weekend showed the relationship between DXY, Bitcoin and the S&P 500, providing ideal conditions for a long-term bottom in the latter.
The last time such a signal came was around one month before the pit of the Bitcoin bear market in late 2022.
âI got 99 problems but the DXY aint 1,â Bitcoindata21 summarized.
BTC/USD vs. S&P 500 vs. DXY chart. Source: Bitcoindata21/X
A bull market rebound in the making?
On longer timeframes, an equally promising trend is playing out for Bitcoin bulls.
Related: Bollinger Bands creator says Bitcoin forming âclassicâ floor near $80K
The global M2 money supply, with which Bitcoin price action is positively correlated, is seeking to break out beyond all-time highs.
âGlobal M2 has remained at an ATH for 3 days in a row,â analyst Colin Talks Crypto noted in a dedicated X post on the phenomenon this weekend.Â
âThis is a fantastic sign for what it signals will be coming into risk assets in ~108 days.â
BTC/USD vs global M2 supply. Source: Colin Talks Crypto/X
The post refers to a chain reaction in which sharp moves in global M2 spark copycat behavior for Bitcoin once the latency period expires.
Before that, however, there may be a final opportunity to âbuy the dip.â
âGlobal M2 (with a 108-day offset) doesnât show a blast-off for another ~2 1/2 weeks, and actually shows a slow bleed into next week until around April 16th or 17th,â Colin Talks Crypto acknowledged.
Earlier this month, the analyst predicted a âbig M2 influxâ incoming, with a corresponding BTC price rebound beginning in May.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.