US soldier charged over $400K Polymarket bet on Maduro’s capture

A US Army soldier involved in the capture of Nicolás Maduro has been charged with making over $400,000 by allegedly betting on the removal of the former Venezuelan president on a prediction market platform. 

In a statement on Thursday, the US Department of Justice alleged that Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke was involved in the planning and execution of “Operation Absolute Resolve” that led to the capture of Maduro at a residence in Caracas, Venezuela, in January. 

Van Dyke allegedly used this information to buy “yes” shares in related Polymarket contracts, including "Maduro out by January 31" and "Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31,” according to the DOJ. 

Van Dyke is also facing action from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, with Chair Michael Selig criticizing Van Dyke for allegedly using sensitive information in a way that could have endangered US national security and “put the lives of American service members in harm’s way.”

While prediction markets have transformed how people bet on real-world events, they have also lowered the barrier for users to trade on confidential information — leading to regulatory scrutiny over insider trading and other misuse on the platforms. 

Some prediction markets have responded to those concerns by strengthening their security measures to catch insider traders on their platforms.

In a post to X, Polymarket said it identified the suspicious trades linked to “today’s arrest” and that it referred the matter to the DOJ and cooperated with its investigation.

“Insider trading has no place on Polymarket. Today's arrest is proof the system works.”

Van Dyke isn’t the first person in the military to be accused of using confidential information to profit on prediction market platforms.

In February, Israeli authorities arrested a military reservist for allegedly using classified information to profit from Polymarket contracts related to Israel's strike on Iran.

The DOJ noted that Van Dyke signed nondisclosure agreements promising to “never divulge, publish, or reveal by writing, words, conduct, or otherwise … any classified or sensitive information” relating to military operations.

The DOJ alleged that he was involved in the planned capture of Maduro since around Dec. 8 and that he created and funded a Polymarket account on Dec. 26. The bets were then placed between Dec. 27 and Jan. 2, the day before Operation Absolute Resolve took effect.

Van Dyke allegedly asked Polymarket to delete his account

Van Dyke allegedly profited $409,881 and sent most of his proceeds to a foreign crypto vault before depositing them into a newly created online brokerage account, the DOJ said.

The DOJ alleged that Van Dyke attempted to conceal his identity by asking Polymarket to delete his account, claiming that he had lost access to the email address linked to the account.

Van Dyke also allegedly changed the email linked to his crypto exchange account, the DOJ said.

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The US Army soldier has been charged with unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain, theft of nonpublic government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud, and making an unlawful monetary transaction.

The wire fraud charge carries a maximum sentence of 20 years behind bars.

“Today’s announcement makes clear no one is above the law,” FBI Director Kash Patel said, adding that the agency “will do whatever it takes to defend the homeland and safeguard our nation’s secrets.”

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