Key takeaways:
Investor optimism over a handful of pending XRP ETF decisions could lift XRP price.
Whale accumulation is strong: $1.1 billion in XRP added despite retail pessimism.
A break above $3.30 could trigger 60% to 85% upside, as the monthly chart indicates bullish structure.
After breaking above $3 on Oct. 2, XRP (XRP) struggled to sustain momentum, falling back to $2.84 on Tuesday. The daily close below the psychological level also marked a loss of support from the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA), signaling short-term weakness. However, several structural and onchain indicators suggest that XRP’s struggle may be temporary, with catalysts lining up for a potential rebound in the coming weeks.
XRP ETF approvals could unlock institutional inflows
October could prove pivotal for XRP as the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approaches final deadlines on 16 crypto ETF applications, including multiple spot XRP ETF filings expected between Oct. 18 and Oct. 25. The regulatory environment has evolved since the SEC approved new generic listing standards in September 2025, streamlining approvals for commodity-based exchange-traded products.
All 11 XRP ETF proposals have surpassed their listing standards deadlines, raising the possibility of simultaneous approval. If approved, analysts estimate these ETFs could attract $3 billion to $8 billion in institutional inflows, comparable to the early stages of Bitcoin and Ether ETF adoption.
CoinShares data further underscored this optimism, showing XRP investment products drew $220 million in inflows last week, pushing year-to-date inflows to $1.8 billion and assets under management to $3.2 billion.
Whale accumulation offsets retail pessimism
Cointelegraph reported that XRP’s bullish-to-bearish sentiment ratio had dipped below 1.0, suggesting that negative mentions now outnumber positive ones across social platforms. Historically, such retail “fear, uncertainty, and doubt” (FUD) phases have preceded strong rebounds, as capitulation often marks market bottoms.
Meanwhile, large holders have been taking advantage of the weakness. Over the past three days, whales accumulated 55 million XRP worth nearly $1.1 billion. Onchain data also showed the Net Holder Position Change has remained positive since August, indicating consistent accumulation around the $3 level.
Related: Altcoin ETFs face decisive October as SEC adopts new listing standards
Traders eye a potential move toward $5
Despite its short-term consolidation, XRP’s price structure remains historically strong. The asset is currently maintaining its highest weekly and monthly closing range since surpassing its 2017 highs.
Meanwhile, crypto analyst EtherNasyonal said that XRP’s seven-and-a-half-year descending channel against Bitcoin was broken in late 2024, marking a significant structural shift, with consistent accumulation over the past year.
The current pattern resembled a bullish market fractal that could yield 60% to 85% gains if XRP breaks decisively above $3.30. Trader Dentoshi observed a similar pattern, inferring that a longer consolidation or price base could lead to a bigger breakout.
However, trader Peter Brandt noted that a daily close below $2.65 could be a defining point for XRP. This would lead to the confirmation of a descending triangle pattern. Brandt said,
“IF it closes below $2.68743 (then I'll be a hater), then it should drop to $2.22163.”
Related: XRP sees highest ‘retail FUD’ since Trump tariffs: Is a major sell-off next?
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.