Bitcoin (BTC) has gone silent over the weekend. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said, in a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), that Bitcoin’s velocity has declined to a three-year low. He said this could either be considered positive, as whales were holding on to their positions, or negative because the transfer to new investors was not happening.
The range-bound action continues to perplex investors with regard to the next possible trending move. In that respect, there was positive commentary from JPMorgan analysts who said that Bitcoin’s downtrend could be ending. They believe that the declining open interest in Bitcoin futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange suggests that the long liquidation is over.
As Bitcoin decides its next move, select altcoins are showing signs of strength. These altcoins could turn negative if Bitcoin’s range resolves to the downside, but if Bitcoin turns up or stays in a range, then they may offer a short-term trading opportunity.
Let’s study the charts of the top-five cryptocurrencies that may move up in the near term and identify the levels that need to be crossed for the bulls to take charge.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin formed an inside-day candlestick pattern on Aug. 26, indicating indecision between the bulls and the bears about the next directional move.
The downsloping 20-day exponential moving average ($27,222) and the relative strength index (RSI) in the oversold zone indicate that bears are in command. However, the bulls are unlikely to give up without a fight. They will try to defend the $24,800 level with all their might.
The BTC/USDT pair may start a stronger recovery if buyers thrust the price above the 20-day EMA. That could open the doors for a possible rally to the 50-day simple moving average ($28,888).
If bears want to strengthen their position, they will have to pull the price below $24,800. If they do that, the pair could start a downtrend to $20,000.
The 20-day EMA is flattening out, and the RSI is near the midpoint on the four-hour chart. This suggests a balance between supply and demand. If the price crumbles below $25,700, the pair could fall to $25,166 and then to $24,800.
On the contrary, if the pair sustains above the moving averages, it will signal that the bulls have absorbed the selling. There is a minor resistance at $26,314, but if this crossed, the pair could climb to $26,610 and, later, to $26,833.
Toncoin price analysis
Toncoin (TON) is forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern, which will complete on a break and close above $1.53.
The gradually upsloping 20-day EMA ($1.38) and the RSI in the positive zone indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. If buyers drive the price above $1.53, the TON/USDT pair could start a new uptrend toward the pattern target of $1.91.
The bears are likely to have other plans. They will try to guard the $1.53 level and tug the price below the moving averages. If they manage to do that, the pair could decline to $1.25 and, eventually, to $1.15.
The four-hour chart shows that the $1.53 level may prove to be a stiff barrier for the buyers to cross. If the price turns down from this level but rebounds off the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bulls are buying on minor dips. That could improve the odds of a break above $1.53. The pair may then rally to $1.70.
Instead, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will signal that traders are booking profits near $1.53. The pair may then drop to the 50-day SMA and, subsequently, to $1.33.
Monero price analysis
Monero’s (XMR) sharp rebound off the uptrend line for the second time in the past few days shows that the bulls are fiercely defending the level.
The XMR/USDT pair could reach the 20-day EMA ($148), which is likely to act as a formidable hurdle. If bulls do not give up much ground from this level, the prospects of a rally above the 20-day EMA increase. The pair may then climb to the 50-day SMA ($157), which could attract selling by the bears.
If the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bears continue to sell on rallies. The pair could then retest the uptrend line. The repeated retest of a support level tends to weaken it. If this level gives in, the pair may collapse to $125 and then to $115.
The bulls pushed the price above the moving averages on the four-hour chart, indicating that the bears may be losing their grip. There is a strong resistance at $150, but if this level is scaled, the pair may reach $160. The rising 20-day EMA and the RSI in the positive territory indicate a minor advantage to buyers.
The first sign of weakness will be a break and close below the moving averages. That could pull the price to the uptrend line. A break below this support could send the pair tumbling to $125.
Mantle price analysis
Mantle (MNT) has been in a strong downtrend since topping out at $0.60 on July 20. The sharp downtrend sent the RSI into oversold territory, indicating that a relief rally was possible.
The outside-day candlestick pattern on Aug. 25 suggests that the buyers are attempting to seize control. The MNT/USDT pair could first rise to the 20-day EMA ($0.45), which is an important level to watch out for. If buyers overcome this obstacle, the pair could rise to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.48.
Contrarily, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bears continue to sell on every minor rally. That could result in a retest of the support at $0.41. If this level cracks, the pair may slide to $0.35.
The four-hour chart shows that the bulls have pushed the price above the moving averages but are struggling to start a runaway rally. This suggests that the bears have not given up, and they may pose a challenge at higher levels.
If the price breaks below the moving averages, it will signal advantage to bears. That will increase the possibility of a break below $0.41.
Alternatively, if the price sustains above the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that the bulls are buying the minor dips. The pair may then attempt a rally to $0.47 and, subsequently, to $0.52.
Quant price analysis
Quant (QNT) rebounded off the strong support at $95 on Aug. 17 and rose above the moving averages on Aug. 26. This shows a strong demand at higher levels.
The bulls will try to sustain the momentum and push the price to the downtrend line. This level is likely to witness a tough battle between the bulls and the bears. If the price turns down from this level but rebounds off the 20-day EMA ($101), it will signal a change in sentiment from selling on rallies to buying on dips.
That could increase the likelihood of a rally above the downtrend line. If that happens, the QNT/USDT pair could start a rally to $120. This positive view could invalidate in the near term if the price turns down and plummets below the moving averages. The pair may then slide to the support at $95.
The moving averages on the four-hour chart have turned up and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating that bulls are on a comeback. The pair could rally to the downtrend line, where the bears may again mount a stiff resistance.
On the downside, the moving averages are expected to act as strong supports. A break and close below the 50-day SMA will indicate that the recovery may be over. The pair may then slump to $98.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.