Key takeaways:
Clearer digital asset regulation, highlighted by this week’s high-profile SEC–CFTC roundtable, could strengthen investor confidence.
A temporary resolution of the looming US government shutdown may ease risk aversion and boost Bitcoin price.
Labor market data and Strategic Bitcoin Reserve expectations could fuel renewed momentum toward the $120,000 level.
Bitcoin (BTC) reclaimed the $114,000 mark on Monday, recouping part of the losses from the previous week. Interestingly, this rebound came despite heavy outflows from the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), prompting investors to question whether the rally is sustainable and what catalysts might drive Bitcoin toward the $120,000 level.
Roughly $900 million flowed out of US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs last week, sparking moderate concern among traders, especially as long-term whales sold 3.4 million BTC. According to Glassnode, about 90% of the coins moved showed profit-taking for the third time in this cycle, increasing the likelihood of “a cooling phase ahead.”
SEC-CFTC joint roundtable, US government shutdown and labor market data
Three events scheduled for this week could shift investor sentiment toward Bitcoin, starting with a joint roundtable on digital asset regulation hosted by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). SEC Chair Paul Atkins is set to open the event on Monday.
The event in Washington, D.C., is designed to bring greater regulatory clarity to jurisdictional tests, listings, and exchange oversight. Panelists include Jeff Sprecher, CEO of ICE-NYSE, Adena Friedman, CEO of Nasdaq, and Terry Duffy, CEO of CME Group, along with executives from leading crypto-focused firms and representatives from JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Citadel.
Another potential catalyst for Bitcoin’s price is the looming risk of a US government shutdown on Oct. 1. US President Donald Trump has scheduled a meeting with congressional leaders on Monday to try to avert the crisis. Without action from Congress, thousands of federal employees could be furloughed, and numerous services, including small-business grant programs, would be disrupted.
Bitcoin’s price has historically reacted negatively when traders become more risk-averse. About $1.7 trillion in “discretionary” spending that funds agency operations is set to expire at the end of the fiscal year on Tuesday. The House of Representatives narrowly approved a bill on Sept. 19 to fund government agencies through Nov. 21, leaving final approval now in the Senate’s hands.
The next major factor that could unlock a Bitcoin rally to $120,000 is the US job market data, the Federal Reserve’s top focus following core inflation that matched market expectations at 2.9% in August. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the JOLTS survey of job openings on Tuesday, followed by the nonfarm payroll report on Friday.
Signs of weakness in the labor market could steer investors toward assets viewed as safer, such as gold and short-term government bonds.
Related: Poland advances strict crypto bill, sparking public backlash
US Strategic Bitcoin Reserves hopes create a psychological support
Another reason Bitcoin has managed to hold the $109,000 level is optimism surrounding plans for a United States Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Jan3 founder Samson Mow recently noted that the Trump administration is “pushing forward” budget-neutral strategies to acquire Bitcoin. Some analysts also highlight the possibility of a reevaluation of the US Treasury’s gold reserves.
By repricing gold’s official value from the $42.22 level set by Congress in 1973, the US Treasury could potentially unlock nearly $1 trillion in credit, though US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has dismissed speculation of such a move. Even so, analysts remain confident in the government’s ability to successfully launch a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in the coming months.
Key drivers that could push Bitcoin above $120,000 include clearer regulation across the digital asset industry, a temporary agreement to avert a looming US government shutdown, and reduced risks reflected in upcoming US job market data. Meanwhile, even the possibility of the US Treasury adding Bitcoin to its reserves provides a psychological support level for the market if those broader events turn unfavorable.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.