Key takeaways:
ETH derivatives positioning shows large traders increasing long exposure as sentiment stabilizes despite ongoing weakness in broader risk markets.
Public companies holding sizable ETH reserves continue to trade at discounts, signaling investors still lack conviction in a near-term recovery.
Ether (ETH) faced a sharp 15% drop Wednesday to Friday, falling to $2,625, its lowest level since July. The move wiped out $460 million of leveraged ETH bullish positions in two days and extended the decline to 47% from the Aug. 24 all-time high.
Demand from ETH bulls is still mostly absent in derivatives markets, although sentiment is slowly leaning toward a potential relief bounce to $3,200.
The annualized funding rate on ETH perpetual futures settled near 6% on Friday, rising from 4% the previous week. Under balanced conditions, the indicator typically fluctuates 6% to 12% to cover the cost of capital. While still far from a bullish setup, ETH futures showed some resilience even as macroeconomic uncertainty increased.
US consumer and housing data signal rising economic stress
A University of Michigan survey shows that 69% of consumers now expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead, more than twice the level from a year ago. Joanne Hsu, the director of the consumer survey, reportedly said: “Cost-of-living concerns and income worries dominate consumer views of the economy across the country.”
During an earnings call on Tuesday, Home Depot CEO Ted Decker said the company continues “to see softer engagement in larger discretionary projects,” mainly due to ongoing weakness in the housing market. Decker said that housing turnover as a share of total available supply has approached a 40-year low, while home prices have begun to adjust, according to Yahoo Finance.
Part of Ether traders’ fading confidence stems from nine straight sessions of net outflows in spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Roughly $1.33 billion has exited those products during that stretch, driven in part by institutional investors reducing exposure to risk assets. The US dollar strengthened against major foreign currencies as concerns around the artificial intelligence sector grew.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to its highest level in six months as investors sought the safety of cash holdings. It might seem counterintuitive, given the US economy’s heavy ties to the tech sector, but traders are simply holding reserves until there is clearer visibility on employment data and whether consumer demand will recover after the extended US government shutdown.
Top traders at OKX increased their long positions even as Ether fell to $2,700 from $3,200 on Sunday. Confidence is gradually improving following strong quarterly earnings and year-end guidance from Nvidia (NVDA US), and after Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said he sees room for interest rate cuts in the near term as the labor market weakens.
Related: BitMine announces 2026 ETH staking plans as market melts down
The cryptocurrency bear market has been especially difficult for companies that built large ETH reserves through debt and equity issuance, such as BitMine Immersion (BMNR US) and ShapeLink Gaming (SBET US). Those stocks currently trade at discounts of 16% or more relative to their ETH holdings, highlighting investors’ lack of comfort.
From a derivatives standpoint, whales and market makers are increasingly convinced that $2,650 marked the bottom. Still, bullish conviction likely hinges on renewed spot Ether ETF inflows and clearer signals of a less restrictive monetary policy, meaning Ether’s potential return to $3,200 may take a few weeks.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.