The poll analyzed the responses of 400 “VIP” crypto traders on Kraken: 41% of respondents described themselves as “investors”, 40% identified as “traders”, and 15% as “institutions” — with the remaining 4% comprising payment processors, crypto exchanges and miners.
84% of respondents manage less than $10 million in capital, while 11% manage between $10 million and $50 million. The remaining 6% is divided evenly between traders managing from $50 million to $100 million and traders mobilizing more than $100 million.
Traders expect BTC to set record highs this year, not ETH
The survey found that the average BTC price target for 2020 is $22,866. However, traders do not expect Ethereum (ETH) to also see new highs — with $810 comprising the average price target for ETH.
The overall market sentiment is slightly bullish, with 44% of participants stating that the cryptocurrency markets are in a bull market, while 22% believe we are in a bear trend and 34% stating they are unsure.
There was little consensus among traders as to what will accelerate crypto’s growth over the next 12 months, with the top answer comprising “adoption” with 19%. Bitcoin’s upcoming halving came second with 15%, followed by political “conflict” with 11%, “fear of missing out” with 11%, and economic “crisis” with 9%.
Respondents came to a greater agreement regarding the major threats to the industry — with 32% of participants agreeing that “regulation” comprises the biggest risk to crypto, followed by “fraud, hacks, scams” with 23%.
Fundamental versus technical analysis
Fundamental considerations, technical analysis (TA), and fundamental considerations appear to be evenly favored among traders — with 26% describing TA as the primary factor underpinning their trading decisions, 24% looking to the fundamentals, and 23% focusing on overall market sentiment.
The state of the global economy and traditional markets influenced the decisions of just under half of respondents, with 55% indicating that mainstream finance has not influenced their decisions regarding crypto in the last six months.
Half of the traders expect an altcoin season during 2020
Over half of participants predict an altcoin season for 2020 — with 54% answering in the affirmative.
Nearly half of the respondents indicated that they do not use stablecoins, with 44.4%. Tether (USDT) was by far the most popular stablecoin, with 33.6% of users adopting USDT, followed by USD Coin (USDC) with 8.7% and Dai (DAI) with 8.4%.