The unprecedented volatility in the equity markets continues as the traders are trying to assess the economic damage and the remedial measures that have been taken to support the economy.
A growing number of developed nations have announced huge stimulus packages to soften the impact of the pandemic. However, billionaire investor Tim Draper believes that Bitcoin (BTC) will lead the recovery from the ongoing financial crisis by transforming the ways in which industries function.
Tone Vays expects Bitcoin to bottom out closer to $2,800. If the level is hit before the upcoming May halving, Vays is fine with it, however, he believes it would be “scary” if the drop happens after the halving. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has an even lower target for Bitcoin as he expects it to plunge to $1,000 if the “pie in the sky” chart setup fails to save it.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
According to Unchained Capital, the recent fall has not been able to deter the confidence of the long-term HODLers. The supply of Bitcoin stored for more than 5 years has only increased from 20.37% to 21.65% in the past year. This shows that the long-term investors are buying on dips and panics and are holding onto their positions. Data suggests that it is the speculators who have held Bitcoin for 6 months or less have dumped their holdings.
As long as the spread of the virus is not controlled, traders will continue to panic and dump their positions periodically. However, like every crisis, even this will pass and the world will move on. Hence, we suggest traders look beyond the crisis and utilize the sharp drops in crypto prices to accumulate for the long-term. Let’s study the charts and see if we also see Bitcoin falling to $2,000 levels or lower?
Bitcoin (BTC) has been holding above the support line of the symmetrical triangle for the past few days. On March 16, the bulls purchased the dip below the support line of the triangle, which is a positive sign. This shows demand at lower levels.
BTC USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
Currently, the BTC/USD pair is largely stuck between $4,400-$6,000. After the sharp fall on March 12, we anticipate the pair to spend a few more days inside the range.
A breakout of the range will be the first indication that bulls have overpowered the bears. It will also suggest accumulation by the stronger hands at lower levels. We might suggest long positions after the price breaks out and closes (UTC time) above the $6,000-$6,435 resistance.
Our bullish view will be invalidated if the bears sink the pair below $4,400-$3,803.58 range. Such a move will be a huge negative. However, we give it a low probability of occurring.
The bears are attempting to keep Ether (ETH) below the support at $117.090. Though the bulls purchased the dip to $100.926 on March 16, they could not push the price back above $117.090. This shows selling by the bears on minor rallies.
ETH USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
If the bulls fail to push the ETH/USD pair above $117.090, we anticipate a drop to the next support at $84.25. This is a critical level to watch out for because if it cracks, the decline can extend to $50.
Conversely, if the bulls can carry the pair above the downtrend line, a move to $139.386 is possible. We will wait for a new buy setup to form before proposing a trade in it.
XRP continues to trade inside the descending channel. While the bulls purchased the dip to $0.1275 on March 16, they have not been able to push the price back above $0.15 levels. This shows selling by the bears on minor rallies.
XRP USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
A break below the small uptrend line can result in a fall to $0.1275 and below that to $0.1140. If this level also gives way, the downtrend can reach $0.10 and below that $0.075.
Conversely, if the bulls can keep the XRP/USD pair above the uptrend line, a move to $0.17468 is possible. A breakout of this will be the first sign that bulls are making a comeback. Until then, we remain neutral on the pair.
The bulls purchased the dip to $150.67 on March 16, which shows demand at lower levels. However, the failure to push Bitcoin Cash (BCH) above $200 shows a lack of buyers at higher levels. This might keep the altcoin range-bound between $150-$200 for a few days.
BCH USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
A break below $150 will be a negative sign and will result in a retest of the recent low of $141.11. If this level cracks, the drop can extend to $105.
Conversely, if the bulls can carry the BCH/USD pair above $200, it will indicate strength. Above $200, a move to the 20-day EMA and above it to the downtrend line of the channel is likely. A break above the channel will suggest a change in trend. We might recommend a long position if the pair sustains above $200.
Bitcoin SV (BSV) has been trading close to the $120 mark for the past few days. The bulls purchased the dip to $100 on March 16, which shows demand at lower levels. However, buying dries up at higher levels.
BSV USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
If the bulls fail to propel the BSV/USD pair above $131.46 within the next few days, we anticipate another attempt by the bears to drag the price to $78.506. A break below this level can sink the pair to $66.666.
On the other hand, if the bulls can scale and sustain the pair above $131.46, a rally to the 200-day SMA at $159.50 is possible. We will wait for the price to break out of the channel before suggesting a trade in it.
The failure of the bulls to carry Litecoin (LTC) above the overhead resistance at $35.8582-$38.8015 suggests a lack of demand at higher levels. However, the positive thing is that the buyers are accumulating on dips to $30 and $24.
LTC USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
A break below the $30-$23.9777 support zone will be a huge negative as it can extend the decline to the next support at $20.
Conversely, if the buyers can drive the LTC/USD pair above the overhead resistance zone, a move to the 20-day EMA at $47 is possible. A break above the descending channel will indicate a possible change in trend.
The range in EOS has been shrinking for the past few days. This suggests that the bulls and the bears are unsure about the next likely move, hence, they are not placing large bets. This period of low volatility will be followed by an increase in volatility.
EOS USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
If the bears sink the EOS/USD pair below the March 16 low of $1.7213, a drop to the recent low at $1.42 is possible. A breakdown of this support will be a huge negative. The next support on the downside is $1.
Conversely, if the bulls can scale the pair above the $2.1624-$2.4001 resistance zone, it will indicate strength. We will wait for the price to sustain above the 20-day EMA before turning positive.
The bulls purchased the dip on March 16 but are struggling to keep Binance Coin (BNB) above $10. This shows a lack of buyers at higher levels. If the bulls fail to sustain the altcoin above $10, we expect another attempt by the bears to resume the downtrend.
BNB USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
If the BNB/USD pair slides below $8.4422, a retest of the recent lows at $6.38 is possible. A breakdown of this support will be a huge negative.
Nonetheless, if the bulls can drive the pair above $12.1111, a move to the 20-day EMA at $14.70 is possible. We will wait for the pair to form a reversal pattern before suggesting a trade in it.
Though Tezos (XTZ) recovered from the low of $1.1349 on March 16, the bulls have not been able to carry the price back above 200-day SMA at 1.52. This shows that the bears are defending the resistance at the 200-day SMA.
XTZ USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
The failure of the bulls to propel the XTZ/USD pair above the 200-day SMA could attract another round of selling. A break below the recent low of $1.0096 can drag the pair to the next support at $0.85.
However, if the bulls can scale the price above the 200-day SMA, it will indicate buying at lower levels. If the price sustains above the 200-day SMA, a move to $1.955 is possible. We will wait for a new buy setup to form before proposing a trade in it.
UNUS SED LEO (LEO) bounced off the support of the $0.9081-$1.040 range on March 17. The price has risen above the moving averages and the bulls will now try to carry the altcoin to the resistance of the range at $1.04.
LEO USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
A breakout of $1.04 will be a positive sign as it will complete an inverse head and shoulders pattern, which has a target objective of $1.27488. Above this level, the rally can extend to $1.36.
However, if the bulls fail to propel the LEO/USD pair above $1.04, a few days of range-bound action is likely. We will wait for a break above $1.04 before suggesting a trade in it.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.