Price Analysis 19/08: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, LTC, BNB, EOS, BSV, XMR, XLM
Bitcoin is leading a recovery. Is this a bull trap or will it result in a new uptrend? Let’s analyze the charts.
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Market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange.
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Bitcoin (BTC) is picking up momentum as it moves higher. This is a positive sign as it shows that bulls are not waiting for lower prices to buy. However, is this a bull trap that will suck in buyers and then turn around and plummet? Let’s analyze the chart.
Let’s look at the positives that point to a resumption of the rally on the chart. The BTC/USD pair has held and bounced sharply from its critical support of $9,080. This confirms that bulls jump in to buy when the price dips to the support as they expect it to hold.
Both moving averages are flattening out and the RSI is close to 50, which points to a range-bound action in the near term. The boundaries of the range might be $9,080 on the downside and $12,000 on the upside. A consolidation near the highs is a positive sign as it increases the probability of a breakout to new highs. So, as long as the price remains above $9,080, the pair is on target to make new yearly highs.
Our assumption will be invalidated if the price turns down either from the current levels or from $12,000 and plummets below $9,080. Such a move will hurt sentiment and signal a deeper correction to $7,451.63. It will also delay the next leg of the up-move. Though we have a bullish tilt, the chart patterns are not offering a trade with an attractive risk-to-reward ratio. Hence, we are not suggesting any fresh positions in it.
The bears could not capitalize on the breakdown below $192.45, which shows strong demand at lower levels. The pullback has reached the 20-day EMA, which is a stiff resistance. Nonetheless, if the bulls scale this overhead resistance, Ether (ETH) can move up to the 50-day SMA, which is close to the horizontal resistance of $235.70.
We anticipate a stiff resistance close to $235.70, because this level has stalled the rally on three previous occasions. If this level holds again, the ETH/USD pair might consolidate between $192.45 and $235.70 for a few days.
On the other hand, if bulls push the price above $235.70, the pair might quickly rally to $320.84. We will watch the price action above the downtrend line for a few days and make a call. Our neutral-to-bullish view will be invalidated if the pair reverses direction from current levels or from the 50-day SMA and breaks below $174.461.
We had anticipated XRP to plunge after it broke to new yearly lows, but that did not happen. Cherry-picking by aggressive bulls has helped the price rise above the previous support-turned-resistance of $0.27795. After the first batch of buyers, the real test starts now. Will the demand sustain at higher levels or will it falter?
The XRP/USD pair has not sustained above the 20-day EMA since breaking below it on June 27. Hence, this makes it a stiff resistance to overcome. If buyers push the price above the 20-day EMA, it will be the first sign that demand is not drying up at higher levels. The next level to watch will be the 50-day SMA and above it $0.34429.
However, if the bulls fail to scale the price above the 20-day EMA once again, we expect bears to sell aggressively and try to break down of the recent lows at $0.225. While it might look attractive to buy at these low levels, we do not have confirmation of a bottom yet, hence, initiating long positions might be a risky affair. We will wait for a new buy setup to form before recommending a trade in it.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has formed a large head and shoulders (H&S) pattern, but bears have not been able to break below the neckline of the pattern. The bearish setup comes into play only after a breakdown and close (UTC time) below the neckline.
However, the rebound from the neckline has been encouraging. It has quickly moved up to the moving averages. If the bulls push the price above $360, we anticipate a move to $428.54 and above it to $515.35. Therefore, we might suggest long positions after watching the price action closer to $360.
Contrary to our assumption, if the bears defend the moving averages, the BCH/USD pair might again slide to the neckline. We expect it to break below it in the next retest. Though the target objective following the completion of the H&S pattern is much lower, we will take it one step at a time and keep an eye on $166.98.
Litecoin (LTC) held the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level once again on Aug.18. This is a minor positive as it shows a lack of selling at lower levels. The price can now pull back to the 20-day EMA, which is likely to act as a resistance. If this level is crossed, a move to the 50-day SMA is probable.
A breakout above the 50-day SMA will indicate that the downtrend is over. The first resistance is $105.676, above which, a retest of the recent highs at $145.6725 is probable.
Both moving averages are sloping down and the RSI is in the negative zone, which shows that bears are in command. If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA or the 50-day SMA and breaks below $69.9227, it can fall to $49.3305, which is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. We do not find any reliable buy setups at the current levels.
Binance Coin (BNB) is trading inside a tight range of $26.202 to $32.50. The bulls are attempting to scale above the moving averages, which is a positive sign. The next stop is $32.50, above which we expect the digital currency to start a new uptrend. The first target on the upside is a retest of the lifetime highs and if it is crossed, the pair is likely to pick up momentum.
On the other hand, if the BNB/USD pair turns down either from the 50-day SMA or from $32.50, it can remain range-bound for a few more days. A breakdown of $26.202 will be the first sign that bea