Price Analysis 17/07: BTC, ETH, XRP, LTC, BCH, EOS, BNB, BSV, XLM, TRX

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Market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange.

Bitcoin rallied from $3,355 on Jan. 29 to a high of $13,973.5 on June 26. That is a gain of 316.49% in just under five months. In that, the last 56% of the rally happened after Facebook unveiled Libra. In the past few days, Libra has come under increased scrutiny from regulators and politicians and Bitcoin has given back the last leg of the gains. 

While Libra might dent sentiment in the short term, it is unlikely to change the long-term trend in Bitcoin that is buoyed by fundamentals. Digital asset management fund Grayscale Investments has reported a significant growth in its assets under management, which has hit an all-time high of $2.7 billion with huge participation from institutional players. Similarly, Bitcoin’s average transaction volume has jumped from $1.04 billion on April 17 to $3.22 billion on July 16, according to crypto analytics site Coinmetrics.io. 

We believe that the current correction is a good entry point because soon the crypto markets will turn their focus on the launch of Bakkt, the increasing interest shown by institutional investors and Bitcoin halving due next year. However, instead of buying in a downtrend, we suggest traders wait for a bottom to be signaled before jumping in. 

BTC/USD

Bitcoin (BTC) broke below the 50-day SMA on July 16 for the first time since February 17 of this year.  Though this is a negative sign, we will watch whether the selling intensity picks up or whether the price reverses direction and quickly rises back above the 50-day SMA.

If the BTC/USD pair climbs back above the 50-day SMA and sustains, it will indicate buying support at lower levels. The pair will gain strength on a breakout above the 20-day EMA. While the 20-day EMA has started to turn down, the 50-day SMA is still sloping up, which suggests that the medium-term trend is bullish. Therefore, we are on the lookout to buy if we spot a reversal pattern on the pair.

Contrary to our assumption, if the price fails to find buyers and continues its decline, it can dive to the $7,451.63–$6,933.90 support zone. However, we give this a low probability of occurring.

ETH/USD

The rebound off the uptrend line did not find buyers above $235.70 on July 15 and 16, hence, Ether (ETH) again dipped back to the uptrend line. The moving averages have completed a bearish crossover and the RSI is close to the oversold zone, which suggests that bears are back in the game. If the uptrend line breaks down, the next stop is at $150. 

However, if the current rebound off the uptrend line breaks out of $235.70, the ETH/USD pair can rally to the 20-day EMA, which will offer stiff resistance. If the next dip sustains above $224.086, the pair might enter a range-bound action. We will wait for the buyers to assert their supremacy before proposing a trade in it.

XRP/USD

Ripple (XRP) is attempting to bounce off the critical support at $0.27795. This support has held on four previous occasions since mid-December last year, hence, we anticipate a strong defense once again. However, both the moving averages are turning down and the RSI is close to oversold levels. This suggests that the bears are in command. 

If the price slips below $0.27795, it can drop to the yearly low of $0.24508. A breakdown to new yearly lows will be very negative for the XRP/USD pair. Conversely, if the current rebound sustains, it can move up to 20-day EMA, which is likely to act as a stiff resistance. If the next dip holds above $0.27795, we might suggest a strate